Monday, October 20, 2008

Louis Navellier and PCU

Original post date: August 23rd 2008
Removed copyright content and reposted

Another good trade closed by Mr. Navellier on his Blue Chip Growth newsletter: PCU.

On his September 2008 issue (last change on PDF file: Aug 19th) Mr. Navellier wrote:

Southern Copper(PCU)
[REMOVED]If you bought this stock two years ago when I first recommended it, you'll be cashing out with a hefty profit of more than 70%. [REMOVED]

Right! If (and only if) you bought it when he first recommended it...
Close price on August 19th was $23.51.
Let's have a look at the chart:

  1. Why didn't he tell his subscribers to sell in early December 2007? I would have been over $40 instead of $25 and 8 months earlier.
  2. Why didn't he tell his subscribers to sell in early May 2008 at around $35?
  3. What about those who bought PCU when Mr. Navellier recommended it, but not first recommended it?

Here is what Mr. Navellier was writing recently:

December 2007 issue
Peru’s Southern Copper Corp. (PCU) is nearing 200% gains for us since June 2006.
Buy below $115
($38.3 split adjusted)

May 2008 issue
Buy below $135 ($45 split adjusted)

June 2008 issue
Buy below $132 ($44 split adjusted)

June 20 hotline
[REMOVED]. PCU has given us 155.48% gains in two [REMOVED] Southern Copper is still listed as a buy below $119 ($39.3 split adjusted).

July 2008 issue
Buy below $119 ($39.6 split adjusted)

August 2008 issue
Buy below $38

Well, I presume that some subscribers bought PCU close to $40 at some time in the last year.
For them we have a loss of more than 40%.

For sure the 70% gain for Mr. Navellier is good (much better than what he did with GRMN for instance) but Mr. Navellier himself highlighed unrealized gains of 150% or 200%, two to three times the realized gain. That means a missed profit bigger than the realized gain.

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