Thursday, October 9, 2008

Robert Hsu: he's sooo smart...

New issue for Robert Hsu $3.000/year Asia Pacific Edge newsletter: your Fastest Profit From The Asia Pacific Miracle.

No new buys. No new sells. But usual crap.

Mr. Hsu starts by reporting what happened (we all know already what happened, don't we?) then he highlights his defensive play (I cannot tell you what it is since it is still in current portfolio). Praising a trade that is currently +0.2% looks bizarre to me.

But then Mr. Hsu praises his Asia Edge newsletter performance reporting his latest 4 profitable trades: MOS, RIO, CLF and MTL.

You can see all the details for these trades here for MOS, here for RIO, hereafter for CLF and here for MTL.

CLF was bought on February 20th 2008 at $61.04 and sold on July 23rd at $95.06 for a 55.7% gain. Well done. At least this time.

Just to recap:
CLF: +56%
MOS: +160% but missed profit ($67 per share) was 20% bigger than realized profit ($57 per share). Without counting the last buy belows advices (buy below $150 and sell at $93)
RIO: 50% gain but the missed profit ($15) was almost double of the realized gain ($9). Without considering the buy below $40 (in May) to sell at $27 for a 30% loss.
MTL: 249% profit for him. $20 per share of missed profit (that would have been another 180%). And the usual buy below advice: buy below $60 in July. $60 to $36 makes a 30% loss.

So, at the end of the day for somebody these trades were profitable. for others they werent at all.

But we have a question now: was there any other profitable trade after September 3rd?

Let's recap the other trades Mr. Hsu closed since July 23rd (CLF and MTL sell date).
  1. July 23rd: Sell BTU for a 5.3% loss
  2. August 6th: Sell CNQ for a 26.6% loss
  3. August 6th: Sell BVN for a 36.6% loss
  4. September 3rd: Sell BUCY for a 8.3% gain
  5. September 3rd: Sell SYT for a 9.5% loss
  6. September 10th: Sell ATW for a 32.8% loss
  7. September 10th: Sell FLR for a 37.2% loss
  8. September 10th: Sell PBR for a 31.0% loss
  9. October 1st: Sell RIMM for a 47.8% loss
But he is not talking about these ones...

Finally, a quick look at the anonymized version of Mr. Hsu's current portfolio (updated on close price of October 9th 2008):
  1. A??? is -45.6%
  2. C?? is -3.0%
  3. G??? is -13.5%
  4. H?? is -19.5%
  5. F?? is -34.3%
  6. N??? is -12.7%
  7. U?? is +0.2%
  8. Q??? is -25.9%
  9. S??? is -27.2%

This is what Mr. Hsu called a "sharp correction" for months...

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