Sunday, November 30, 2008
it has been a very tough month for me. Very busy at work and very busy for an MBA degree I just got last week.
Now I am back and I decided to dedicate part of this week-end to a quick analysis of Louis Navellier's performance for the month of November 2008.
Let's start from the $5.000/year Global Growth performance.
Louis Navellier closed 22 trades this month and none of them was profitable. Average loss for all 22 trades is almost 40%.
In the table hereafter you can see a quick summary of the trades. In addition to the amazing 97.84% loss with XTLB you can see there half of the trades generated losses of more than 40%.
Moving to the $5.000/year Quantum Growth service we can notice that the 13 trades generated an average loss of 12%. There have been 1 profitable trade (6.32%) and a break-even. The other 11 trades were crap.
It is interesting to notice that buying when Mr. Navellier said "Sell" would have generated a 4.28% average profit up to last Friday...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
AZZ is actually up 35% in four days and since bought is up... 10.59%.
Thanks to the 45% up, URBN is now down 12.28%.
EnerSys was up 39% to the current amazing 73.35% loss.
WLL gained 42% and is currently down 58.42%.
And the other stocks in the portfolio that performed so well recently are:
|A?? ||December 2006||10.59%|
|B?? ||October 2008||-36.33%|
|C?? ||July 2008||-30.30%|
|D?? ||August 2007||-36.86%|
|D?? ||December 2007||-40.45%|
|E?? ||July 2008||-73.35%|
|F??? ||July 2007||32.90%|
|I??? ||September 2008||-52.46%|
|M?? ||November 2008||-9.23%|
|P?? ||October 2008||-22.40%|
|P??? ||April 2008||-9.70%|
|P?? ||August 2008||-64.80%|
|S??? ||February 2008||36.84%|
|S?? ||December 2007||-6.30%|
Moderately Aggressive Stocks
|C??? ||June 2008||-21.33%|
|C? ||July 2007||-11.29%|
|D?? ||September 2007||-64.71%|
|F?? ||January 2008||-47.46%|
|S??? ||October 2008||-11.32%|
|T?? ||July 2007||-41.78%|
|W?? ||September 2008||-58.42%|
|W?? ||June 2008||-73.65%|
|F??? ||September 2008||-36.72%|
|G?? ||September 2007||-32.94%|
|S?? ||May 2008||-23.86%|
This guy is incredible!!!
Sunday, November 23, 2008
OK, I admit, I’m feeling full of myself—and so are thousands of Emerging Growth subscribers!
I told them (and then I told you) back in the spring that an Obama win would mean a win for New Energy—alternative, non-fossil fuels.
Plus, I warned my subscribers last December to flee that symbol of Old Energy, GM. The stock stood at $28 then. It’s at $2 today. And right now, with GM on the operating table, the message from the Obama camp is loud and clear: Go green, Detroit, or go away.
Obama Slates Billions
for New Energy
You’d better act quickly, my friend. Among the laws ready to be railroaded through Congress is a bold and symbolic boost to alternative, non-fossil energy.
A few nimble investors will be able to catch this alternative energy tiger by the tail.
I want you to be one of them, so read every word of the following.
Fuel Systems Up 36%
SQM Up 36%!
LOOK at Fuel Systems. It CRUSHED estimates when it reported. Sales are UP 62%. Earnings went from a loss to a gain of $18 million. Outlook was raised—and the stock shot up 45% in a few hours. I think we’ll see panic buying this week, and not just in Fuel Systems.
This is the FSYS chart. Navellier jumped in at the end of August 2008 at $51.83 and he is currently down 55%.
Let's have a look at SQM now. Navellier bought it at the end of April 2008 at $29.55. SQM went to $59 before plunging to current $19.76. Remember when he was saying "This time last year, this was a $13 stock. Recently, it hit an all-time high of $54. So that’s a 415% gain! And between $54 and $150 there’s NOTHING STOPPING IT!" here.
Louis Navellier feels full of himself for having turned this 100% unrealized gain into a 33% unrealized loss. What a genius...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Dow slumped in late trading to close down 5%, or 427 points lower, at 7,997.28. While this is the first time the index has closed below 8,000 since 2003, it still has not pushed through the intraday low of 7,773.71–which I still consider the bottom of the market. The S&P shed 6% to close at 806.58, which pushed through the previous low, but since the Dow is still holding firm I do not consider this an indicator of further declines. I have said before that we are bouncing along the bottom of this bear market and will likely see several "retests" before the recovery, and this is part of that trend.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Here is what a reader wrote in a post comment. I think it is useful to repost it here:
Here is the latest disaster from Navellier.
NTRS: First posted in the Oct 2008 Newsletter
"Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is the trick play in our playbook! I know I've been telling you to steer clear of financials, but I'm going to make a very rare exception for this great stock. Why? Because Northern Trust doesn't have any exposure to the problems that are sinking other banks and brokerages! The stock is a huge bargain right now, and we'll buy in before Wall Street figures out how strong NTRS is. Northern Trust is a leading personal trust manager in the U.S., $3.6 trillion of assets under its custody, and manages corporate pension plans for institutional clients. Since some of the largest firms have been beat up so badly by the mess in financials and NTRS has come through unscathed, the money is pouring in! In the second quarter, Northern Trust's earnings were 28.6% higher than analysts' consensus estimates, and its Return on Equity is an impressive 19.9%–yet it trades at barely 17 times forecasted earnings. Buy this Conservative stock below $93."
Today's newsletter (Dec 2008):Sell NTRS (current price $42.16)
Net investement return: Over 40% decline in just under 2 months.
Thanks a lot Louis. I'm sure I could not have lost 40% in 2 months on my own!!!
it is a very busy month for me and I am far behind with this blog.
I have some 20 posts waiting to be finalized and published.
Please be patient and I will release news this weekend.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Jeff Manera's G3 Global Options will no longer be published.
G3 Global Options was created as an exciting online investment service that delivered incredible profits by focusing on emerging market options plays.
Based on 2008 results, Jeff should not be the only one to close his service...
Spam number 1:
Obama's First Doubler: Buy Tonight!
Buy the stock named in tonight’s issue of Emerging Growth, and you could become Wall Street’s next millionaire.
The reason is simple:
It’s about to become one of the biggest beneficiaries of Barack Obama’s renewable energy future!
All thanks to this company’s advanced fuel conversion systems, 61% revenue growth and knockout 180% earnings surprise.
If you can grab this one now—before Obama’s first renewable energy bill becomes law—you could easily double your money or more as this stock soars from $36... to $48... to $72 or higher in the weeks and months ahead.
First of all, there was no tonight issue on November 16th. But the stock is FSYS, the one that Mr. Navellier is pushing since last august, when he bought it at $51.83 (its highest price since the 2001 bubble).
All happy that on November 7th FSYS moved from $26.71 to $38.80, he seems to forget that he payed it almost $52 and he is currently down 35% on FSYS.
Spam number 2:
I got this last Saturday. Here are the first lines (enough bulls..t - no need to post all).
Despite the subprime sell-off…
Despite the mortgage meltdown…
Despite the housing slide and the chilling conditions that have sent millions to the poorhouse…
… I’m proud to say that our Blue Chip Growth stocks have not only been an “oasis” in these trying times but have also delivered double-digit gains in a market that’s punished 9 out of 10 investors.
I’m not saying it’s been smooth sailing—no investor in their right mind can say that given this year’s market.
But what I can tell you is that we’ve been able to look beyond the day-to-day gyrations of the market... ignore the continuous media mayhem…and focus squarely on the time-proven factors that have safely and systematically built my readers wealth over the past ten years:
Buying Fundamental Superior Stocks at the Right Time.
And I’m proud to say the results have been quite impressive!
Today we’re up 184% in Monsanto, up 49% in Gilead Sciences and up 35% in McDonald’s, just to name a few of our market-beating stocks.
I mention this not to boast, but simply to show you in black-and-white that this is not only how we’ve beaten the market by $3-to-$1 for 10 years now…
…but also how we will continue to beat the market in 2009—as our recent results have proven.
So much bulls..t in just a few lines...
- To have a look at the "oasis", the double digit gains and the quite impressive results of Blue Chip Growth you can go here, here, here, or here. Or even here.
- Monsanto is up 156% (not 184%) and lost 50% since June 2008 (missed profit is much bigger that current, unrealized gain)
- Gilead is up 48% at $46 and is still $10 below its levels of August 2008
In addition to MON, GILD and MCD, Navellier's BlueChip portfolio is currently up 20% with B??, 15% with C?? and 1% with P??. All other stocks are down, more precisely:
Conservative stocks (average -5.46%)
- -4.23% on A??
- -46.64% on A??
- -0.02% on C?
- -36.43% on D??
- -28.54% on E??
- -9.77% on E???
- -4.15% on G??
- -23.53% on N??
- -48.42% on N???
- -35.92% on O??
- -18.68% on P??
- -18.21% on P?
- -28.83% on R??
- -46.40% on S??
- -25.50% on U??
- -15.54% on W??
Moderately aggressive stocks (average -45.12%)
- -68.48% on A??
- -21.23% on A???
- -64.55% on C?
- -55.37% on F??
- -38.74% on H??
- -48.56% on I??
- -31.14% on M?
- -64.09% on W??
- -60.74% on W??
Aggressive stocks (average -55.65%)
- -53.60% on F???
- -63.28% on G??
- -27.47% on M??
- -78.24% on S????
The overall "oasis" is currently down a quite impressive 22.53% (and it does not count the recent disastrous sells)
Friday, November 14, 2008
CTRP went over $70 (split adjusted) but Mr. Hsu never sold it. He waited the long decline to $25 before telling his subscribers to sell half of them for around 10% gain.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Louis Navellier to his Emerging Growth subscribers:
We have a lot to be positive about right now. For one, our Buy List stocks are posting phenomenal earnings. Just today, for example, Diana Shipping (DSX) reported that its third-quarter profit rose 14%, beating the Street’s expectations.He is currently down 58.57% on DSX. But he is positive...
- April 30th: bought at $69.13, buy below $75
- May 7th: so far it has given us about a 9% gain. [REMOVED]. Buy SOHU below $75.
- May 14th: Buy under $85.
- May 21st: Continue to buy SOHU under $85.
- May 28th: Buy under $85.
- June 4th: [...] Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) with a 14.1% gain [...] Buy under $85.
- June 11th: Buy under $85.
- June 18th: Buy under $85.
- June 23, 2008: The Beijing Olympic Games are just over a month away, and advertisers throughout China are gearing up. As you know, 60% to 70% of China's ads this year are linked to the Olympics. And our very own Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) is investing $14.5 million on a marketing drive ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
That's why it's a bit surprising to me that Sohu, the official Internet sponsor of the Olympic Games, sold off nearly 14% on Friday. [REMOVED] Continue to buy SOHU under $85.
- June 25th: Buy under $85.
- July 2nd: Buy under $85.
- July 9th: Buy under $85.
- July 16th: Buy under $85.
- July 23rd: Buy under $85.
- July 30th: Continue to buy Sohu under $85.
- August 6th: Buy under $85.
- August 13th: In Asia Edge, we are profiting from China's hosting of the Olympics by investing in Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU). Buy under $85.
- August 20th: I think SOHU and NTES are good buys now.
- August 27th: Buy SOHU under $85.
- September 3rd: Buy under $85.
- September 10th: Buy under $85.
- September 17th (SOHU is at $56 at this time): Sohu.com Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) shares are under pressure with the rest of the stock market, as well. But let me remind you that the firm's core business is still quite strong. So I am expecting better days ahead for SOHU. Buy SOHU under $85.
- September 24th: Buy under $85.
- October 1st: Buy under $85.
- October 8th: Buy under $85.
- October 15th: Buy under $85.
- October 22nd: Buy under $85.
- October 29th: Buy under $85.
- November 5th: Buy under $85.
- November 12th: Sohu.com Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) is planning to boost spending on content services in order to attract more advertisers. But the stock was still hit yesterday in response to poor earnings news from Chinese advertising giant Focus Media. I think SOHU's business model is sufficiently different from FMCN's, so the hit was not justified. Nevertheless, SOHU has been a drag on the portfolio this year, and will likely struggle in a slowing economic environment. So I want you to cut your loss and sell the stock. Sell SOHU.
Sold at $40.97 for a 40% loss. I am tempted to buy SOHU one of next days...
On August 13th Mr. Hsu bought QCOM, at its highest price ever, except the IT bubble of 2000.
Buy price was $55.39 and Mr. Hsu wrote:
Buy QCOM under $55. I'm targeting $66 in the next six to eight months, which would give us a nice 20% gain.
No way. The decline started just a few days later, but Mr. Hsu, far from the concept of stop losses, with a market going from bad to worse, kept QCOM until yesterday.
- August 20th: Buy under $55
- August 27th: as we discussed a couple weeks ago with the recommendation of Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), I think the technology sector is offering some profitable opportunities. Technology stocks that have significant exposure to Asia should perform particularly well in upcoming weeks and months, despite an economic slowdown in the U.S.
- September 3rd: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) shares traded lower this week, as well. The main reason for the recent decline was a horrendous earnings report from Dell. Due to the bad report, the tech sector has been weak, and QCOM and RIMM have traded down with their peers. I still think that QCOM and RIMM are good buys as both should perform well in the upcoming weeks and months despite a global economic slowdown. Continue to buy QCOM under $55 and RIMM under $135. You remember the 47% loss with RIMM, don't you?
- September 10th: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is working with laptop manufacturers to make a low-cost Internet-based device to be sold in India early next year. QCOM continues to be a major beneficiary of Asian wireless markets' move into 3G technology. And I recommend that you continue to buy QCOM under $55.
- September 17th: I want you to buy QCOM under $55.
- September 24th: Buy under $55
- October 1st: Buy under $55
- October 8th: Buy under $55
- October 15th: finally, sitting on a 34% loss, the buy price was lowered: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) has announced that the U.S. import ban against its cell phone chips has been thrown out. The ban was put in place when the ITC stated that Qualcomm's products infringe on a Broadcom patent. But the Appeals Court threw out the ban, saying that the ITC did not have the authority to issue it. The ITC will now revisit the case. QCOM says that it has already developed other software that does not infringe on Broadcom's patent. This is bullish for QCOM, a company that does not rely on bank financing. I want you to buy QCOM under $45.
- October 22nd: Buy Below $45
- October 29th: Buy Below $45
- November 5th: Buy Below $45
- November 12th: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) announced poor earnings last week, and as a results, share have sold off. During the third quarter, net income fell 29% to $878 million from $1.13 billion a year earlier. And the company said sales this quarter may fall as much as 6%, which would be the first decline since 2001. In light of the company's poor quarterly results, I recommend selling QCOM. Sell Qualcomm.
Close price was $32.57 for a 41.2% loss.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
FMCN went from (adjusted prices of) $13 to $20, then $30, then up to $40, $50 and even over $60 in October 2007.
At that time, at around $60 and gaining 330%, Mr. Hsu was writing:
- September 27th: Buy FMCN under $60
- October 4th: Buy FMCN under $60
- November 8th: Watch FMCN and buy it on dips under $60
- November 29th: Continue to buy FMCN under $60
You can see in the chart what happened next. But here is what Mr. Hsu was writing during the decline:
- January 3rd: Buy shares of FMCN under $62.
- January 17th: Keep buying FMCN under $62.
- January 24th: Buy FMCN under $62.
- February 7th: Buy FMCN under $62.
- March 6th: keep buying E-House (EJ) under $20 and Focus Media under $62.
- March 13th: I recommend that you buy FMCN under $62.
- March 20th: hold Focus Media (already under $40 - 33% loss for those who bought it at $60)
No news until yesterday. I'd like you to wait for a bounce above $10 to sell it
FMCN just closed at $8.83. Mr. Hsu and some of his paying subscribers burned some 36% of their money. Those who bought at $62 as he was suggesting are now losing 85% (eighty five percent).
Selling at $10 will bring a loss of 28% to 83%. But FMCN still has to gain 13% to go to $10...
Mr. Navellier was not the only InvestorPlace expert to suggest DRYS as an intelligent investment.
His friend and colleauge Mr. Robert Hsu also suggested to buy DRYS on his $3.000/year Asia Pacific Edge newsletter.
On the October 31st issue Mr. Hsu was saying:
Grab shares of our new company, DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS), below $125. This Greek dry bulk shipper will benefit from rising shipping rates and increased demand for iron ore, coal and grain from Asia.
This advice was issued before Mr. Navellier's (that was on Nov. 26th).
The close price of DRYS on October 31st was $117.86.
The following weeks Mr. Hsu wrote:
- Nov. 07 2007 - I want you to continue to buy DRYS under $125. (Closing Price $106.20)
- Nov. 14 2007 - I want you to continue to buy DRYS under $125. (Closing Price $92.42)
- Nov. 21 2007 - Global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald recently raised its price target for DryShips from $114 to $133. (Closing Price $71.38)
- Nov. 28 2007 - I want you to buy DRYS under its new buy limit of $100. (Closing Price $86.97)
- Dec. 05 2007 - If you have extra money, grab shares of our top buys of the week: [REMOVED] and DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS). Both are good buys below our recommended limits. I believe that DRYS is a bargain right now, and I want you to continue to buy DRYS under $100. (Closing Price $84.30)
- Dec. 12 2007 - Continue to buy DRYS under $100. (Closing Price $88.30)
- Dec. 19 2007 - I want you to continue to buy DRYS under $100. (Closing Price $74.74)
- Dec. 26 2007 - I want you to continue to buy DRYS under $100. (Closing Price $72.79)
- Jan. 02 2009 - I want you to continue to buy DRYS under $100. (Closing Price $78.11)
Sell your position in DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS). I'm concerned about the stock's recent performance in the face of the current market volatility.
A couple of comments now.
- DRYS more than doubled from less than $60 in August 2007 to more than 120$ in October 2007. Technical analysis teaches that one should take a long position when a trend is starting. Who wants to get in after a 100% gain in 2 months?
- At the end of October 2007 the support were broken. Technical analysis teaches to sell once supports are broken. Getting in at the end of October was a gamble, with high chances to lose.
- -46% on what they invested in DRYS
- 500$ lost in the 2 months subscription to Asia pacific Edge
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Just got it.
November 10, 2008 We hit Fuel Systems out of the park last week, just like I told you we would. Louis Navellier here, and I'm not writing to you today to gloat. I'm writing to you to make a point. Alternative energy stocks are ready to run and you'd better get on board. Look at Fuel Systems. It CRUSHED estimates when it reported last week. Sales are UP 62%. Earnings went from a loss to a gain of $18 million. Outlook was raised?and the stock shot up 45% in a few hours. I think we'll see panic buying this week, and not just in Fuel Systems. [Usual marketing crap here]
Just to let you know Mr. Navellier bought FSYS at $56.81. Thanks to the fantastic rally of last Friday he is currently down 40% on FSYS.
No need to praise yourself Mr. Navellier.
I already named GHM in a couple of posts.
I highlighted how in September Navellier claimed to gain 39% on GHM while actually he was gaining 2.2% and how, still in September GHM was losing some 22% since he recommended as a Top 10 stock a few weeks before.
On October 13th 2008 Mr. Navellier told his $5.000/year Quantum Growth subscribers to buy GHM.
This Week’s New Buy
Graham (GHM) manufactures vacuum systems, [REMOVED].
The company is due to report earnings in early November. What I like about Graham is that [REMOVED]. Shares of Graham split 2-for-1 last week, and the stock is an outstanding new buy.It was even on
This Week’s Top 5
2. Graham (GHM) is my sole new buy this month. The company saw its sales rise 38.3% last quarter to $27.6 million. During the same period, Graham’s earnings more than doubled to $5.7 million or $1.11 per share compared with $2.7 million or 53 cents per share last. The stock split 2-for-1 last week and is an outstanding buy! Close price on that day was $22.88.
No news the week after (October 20th) and on October 27th GHM was again on the Top 5 stocks. Now number 4.
4. Graham (GHM) will report its third-quarter earnings next Monday, November 3. There’s only one analyst who covers Graham and expects earnings of 53 cents a share. Personally, I prefer stocks that aren’t widely followed on Wall Street. It’s best to get in before the crowd knows about a stock. Shares of Graham consolidated last week and are an outstanding buy.
Again number 4 the week after (November 3rd)
4. Graham (GHM) will report its earnings after today's closing bell. The shares had a very strong week last week (meaning it recovered 5 of the 7 dollars it lost since bought - still down 10%). I'm very impressed that Graham is currently going for less than 12 times earnings. The stock is an outstanding buy!
So outstanding that yesterday Mr. Navellier wrote:
This Week’s New Sells
I only have two sells this week, Graham (GHM) and Darling International (DAR).Close price yesterday was $12.53.
GHM performance was -45%
In the same time the S&P500 lost 8% from 1,003.35 to 919.21.
Some time ago Louis Navellier closed a break even trade on DAR.
On November 3rd Louis Navellier told his $5.000/year Global Growth readers to buy Darling International (DAR) again.
This Week’s New Buys Darling International (DAR) operates the largest independent rendering operation in the U.S. The company collects and processes animal by-products and used cooking grease from approximately 115,000 restaurants, butcher shops, grocery stores and independent meat and poultry processors throughout the U.S. Its rendering operations produce yellow grease, tallow, and meat, bone and blood meal, which Darling sells in the U.S. as well as internationally to makers of soap, rubber, pet and livestock feed, and chemicals. Darling’s next earnings report will come out on Thursday. Last quarter, earnings rose 141.7% to 29 cents per share compared with 12 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. Darling’s sales climbed 38.6% to $220.9 million. Wall Street expected earnings of 24 cents per share on sales of $205.2 million, so Darling posted a 20.8% earnings surprise and a 7.7% sales surprise. Darling continues to grow through strategic acquisitions and is a very good buy.
NOTE: no confidential information in the above sentences. All is public domain.
Close price on November 3rd was $7.13. No explaination yesterday when he wrote
This Week’s New Sells
I only have two sells this week, Graham (GHM) and Darling International (DAR).Close price was $5.73 for a 19% loss in one week.
In the same week the S&P500 lost 4.8% from 966.30 to 919.21.
In one of his latest spam-like emails promoting his $5.000 Quantum Growth newsletter Mr. Navellier wrote:
I’m a shrewd investor who eats risk for lunch. That’s why I have no problem offering a no-questions-asked money-back guarantee on my Global Growth service. If, after 14 days (or at any point in your trial subscription) you are not completely thrilled with your profits, all you need to do is call, and you'll receive a complete 100% refund—no questions asked. After all, over the past 10 years, my system has not only beaten the S&P 500 by $30-to-$1, but has delivered 1,600% returns thanks to great trades...
Today I would like to tell you about Mr. Navellier's Quantum Growth advices on Western Digital.
Oct 29th 2007 Buy at $25.27
Nov 12th 2007 Sell at $25.12
Realized Gain/Loss: -0.6%
Feb 11th 2008 Buy at $28.40
Apr 28th 2008 Sell at $29.05
Realized Gain/Loss: +2.3%
Jun 09th 2008 Buy at $38.83
Open position: Aug 05th 2008 closing price: $29.06
Unrealized Gain/Loss: -25%
Now WDC is trading at a PE between 7 and 8.
It has a good financial situation (low Debt/Equity and Debt/Assets, average Quick and Current Ratio).
It has high Operating, EBITDA and Net Profit Margin. Good EPS and Sales Growth Rates.
Top of industry ROA, ROE and ROI.
As soon as Mr. Navellier will say to sell it, I will jump in.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Obama Honeymoon is Here
Our Quantum stocks are flying in the wake of the election—even while the market lurches. We’re up 26%... 29%... 35% even 43%.
Well, this is simply NOT TRUE.
Without counting the recent quantum disasters, here is the current QG portfolio:
There is a +36% but where are the 26%... 29%... 35% even 43%?
The great MTL ride of Louis Navellier begins on October 29 2007 when he and his paying subscribers of Global Growth bought it for an adjusted price of $28.87.
MTL was gaining since 2nd half of 2006 and after Navellier's purchase date it continued to climb.
Between April and June 2008 it traded above $50 (price adjusted for the 3:1 split of May 2008) gaining 70% for Navellier & C.
Here is what Mr. Navellier was telling his paying readers in his $5.000/year Global Growth newsletter (in parenthesis you see the price of that day):
- 05/27/08 – Top 3 Stocks: MTL is booming. (51$)
- 06/02/08 – Top 3 Stocks: Mechel rose 17% last week (and 78% for the year so far). (56$) A quick note here: on Dec. 31 MTL was $32.38 and on June 2nd it was $55.93. Now, 55.93 divided by 32.38 minus 1 equals 73% and not 78%. Just for sake of accuracy.
- 06/09/08 – Top 3 Stocks: Mechel's annual dividend will be about $1.12 per ADR. (53$)
- 06/16/08 – Top 3 Stocks: MTL still performing well. (51$)
- 06/23/08 – Top 3 Stocks: Mechel still going strong. (50$)
- 06/30/08 – Top 3 Stocks: MTL to offer 11.67% of share base in a deal that could raise $2.74 billion. (50$)
- 07/07/08 – Top 3 Stocks: MTL still a steel powerhouse. (44$)
- 07/14/08 – Top 3 Stocks: MTL jumps 5% on strong quarterly report. (46$)
- 07/21/08 – Top 3: MTL is exactly the type of stock we want to own. (40$)
MTL has sunk like a brik in the last weeks. It now has a PE of around 6.
MTL was 57$ at the beginning of June and a serious investor would have set a stop BEFORE losing 60% in 2 months. Yesterday MTL closed at $18.30 (worst since Oct 1st 2007 and much worse than the $28.87 payed for it almost one year ago).
But Mr. Navellier also pushed his $5.000/year Quantum Growth subscribers to buy and sell MTL. In fact he told his $5.000 paying subscribers to buy MTL on Sept 10th 2007 at around $14.77 and sell it on October 8th at around $19.83. I do hope his paying subscribers did not follow his sell advice, because MTL went up close to $30 by end of October 2007.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
On a sunny June 25th, $3.000/year Asia Edge subscribers received their usual Wednesday issue fromMr. Robert Hsu.
That day the new buy was Fluor Corporation (FLR).
New Buy: Fluor Corporation
To play the economic boom in the Middle East, I want to recommend Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR), [REMOVED].
In the last sixty years, Fluor has [REMOVED].
Great Growth Ahead
Last year was the most [REMOVED]. I want you to buy FLR under $200 ($100 split adjusted). I expect it to reach $240 or higher by year-end, which will give us a nice gain of 20%.
July 7th - $174
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) may receive a [REMOVED]. Continue to buy FLR under $200.
July 23rd - $87 (split adjusted)
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) announced recently that it is [REMOVED].
The stock had a 2-for-1 split late last week. I recommend that you continue to buy FLR under split-adjusted $95.
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) has experienced significant weakness as of late, so I am moving FLR to HOLD as well. Hold FLR.No additional news yet.
From the chart we can see that Mr. Hsu bought FLR at the worst time ever: it's historic top at $190.04 ($95.02 split adjusted).
His (and his $3.000/years paying readers) current performance (August 13th) is around -25%.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Mr. Navellier did like GEOY really a lot. In fact he was pushing it in two of his newsletters: Emerging Growth and Quantum Growth.
I was asking myself which of these newsletter was the worse and GEOY might give us some indications.
Let's start from Emerging Growth
In March 2008 issue, with GEOY at around $32, Mr. Navellier wrote:
GeoEye (GEOY) provides satellite-related imagery and [REMOVED]. The stock is a great buy, [REMOVED]. GEOY is a good Conservative buy below $32.
March 14th: GeoEye (GEOY) pulled back and is a good buy.
March 21st: GeoEye (GEOY) pulled back and is a good buy.
March 28th: GeoEye (GEOY) pulled back and is a good buy.
April 2008 issue: buy below 29$
April 4th: GeoEye (GEOY) pulled back and is a good buy.
April 11th: GEOY was at $23.32
Question: Louis, I’m worried about the future of GEOY. Do you think it’s time to sell? I’d love to learn more about where you see this specific stock headed.
Answer: No, this is not yet the time to sell GeoEye (GEOY). [REMOVED].
May 2008 issue: buy below $27
May 9th: GEOY was at $18.93
Question: What's going on with GeoEye (GEOY)? I would love to hear any guidance you can offer on this stock.
Answer: GeoEye is an A-rated stock in PortfolioGrader Pro. [REMOVED]. If the stock does not recover within a couple of months, I am inclined to sell it in order to buy a better stock.
June 2008 issue: buy below $20
July 2008 issue: GEOY between $18 and $19
To maximize our returns as the reports come out, you should sell 10 of our stocks with grade of B or less in PortfolioGrader Pro. These stocks are [...] Geoeye (GEOY) [...]
Let's see now how well the more expensive Quantum Growth newsletter performed with GEOY
January 28th: $32.77
GeoEye Inc. (GEOY) provides satellite-collected Earth imagery and [REMOVED]. GEOY is a great buy.
February 4th: buy below $36.45
February 11th: sell GEOY. Price $32.04
March 24th: Price $28.06
No matter what the outcome of the election in November is, GeoEye’s business will not be impacted. Intelligence gathering via satellite is a very steady business. The stock is an excellent buy.
March 31st: buy below $27.19
April 7th: buy below $26.25
April 14th: buy below $24.15
April 21st: buy below $26.32
April 28th: buy below $24.51
Friday, November 7, 2008
Let's have a look at how the icon among growth stock investors performed recently with a stock I would not have wanted even if someone gave it to me free: ELN.
Just one reason: EPS: -$0.70! If you want me to take this stock, you have to pay me more than 70 cents per share. Period.
Back in January (28th) 2008 Mr. Navellier was writing to his $5.000/year paying Global Growth readers:
Company: Elan Corporation PLC (ELN)
Industry: Pharmaceuticals: Other
Buy Below: $24.83
Ireland's Elan Corporation PLC (ELN) is focused on the [REMOVED]. Price was $23.17.
On February 4th the buy below price was $28.47 and the market price was $26.70
On February 11th the buy below price was $27.04 and the market price was $25.36
On February 19th the market price was $25.33 and Mr. Navellier wrote:
Ireland's Elan Corp. PLC (ELN) reported a loss [REMOVED]. But for 2007 as a whole, Elan's net loss was $405 million, [REMOVED].
On February 25th the buy below price was $25.60 and the market price was $24.01
On March 3rd Mr. Navellier lowered the buy below price to $23.70 and the market lowered ELN price to $22.14
On March 10 Mr. Navellier told his paying subscribers to sell this peace of junk at $18.40 and take home a 20% loss.
But Mr. Navellier was so convinced that an EPS of -70 cents is nothing that after a few months he told his $5.000/year Global Growth subscribers to buy ELN again at around $34.02.
Let's take a pause here. If we decided to buy on March 10th when Mr. N. was selling and to sell on July 14th when Mr. N. was buying we would have realized a gain of:
($34.02 - $18.40) / $18.40 - 1 = 84% (missed profit for Mr. Navellier)
Let's go on. Here is what Mr. Navellier was writing on July 14th 2008:
Ireland's Elan (ELN) specializes in the [REMOVED].
The buy below price was $36.73
Quite similar scenario to the one of January 28th... would you expect anything substantially different?
On July 21st the buy below price was $37.79 and the market price was $35.00
On July 28th the buy below price was $34.44 and the market price was $31.90
On August 4th Mr. Navellier wrote his $5.000/year subscribers to sell ELN, that day trading between $10.65 and $11.74.
Buying at $34.02 and selling at around $11 neans a -67%. Not bad for a 3 weeks trade.
$10.000 invested twice in ELN, according to the icon among growth stock investors became $2.640.
Let's recap with the help of a chart:
- 20% loss
- 84% missed profit
- 67% loss
There are so many wrong advices from Louis Navellier that sometimes I do not know where to start from. I am also starting to doubt about how true are the track records he is publishing on his website.
Well, this time I am going to write about Louis Navellier's Blue Chip Growth newsletter (the cheap one, just a few $100 lost per year) and MGM.
On his July 2007 issue of Blue Chip Growth (edited on June 21st 2007) Louis Navellier was writing:
MGM Mirage (MGM) is one of the world’s largest gaming firms. [REMOVED]. Buy MGM for the Aggressive section of your portfolio below $95.
That day MGM closed at $81.30.
Not many words from Louis in the following issues of Blue Chip Growth about MGM.
Just a line with adjusted buy limits.
August 2007: buy below $90
September 2007: buy below $77
October 2007: buy below $92
November 2007: buy below $102
December 2007: buy below $99
January 2008: buy below $96
February 2008:buy below $75
And finally, on March 2008 issue (edited on February 19th, when MGM closed at $66.19)
This month, I recommend selling CME Group Inc. (CME), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE), MGM Mirage (MGM), Schering-Plough (SGP) and Tesoro (TSO) due to their deteriorating reward/risk characteristics and declining Quantitative grades in PortfolioGrader Pro.
For Louis buying at $81.30 and selling at $66.19 meant a loss of 18%.
I wonder if some of his subscribers bought MGM in October close to $100 just to see their loss to be 33%...
Thursday, November 6, 2008
- a Diversified Consumer Services company that is in the education business - nothing to do with renewable energy
- an Electronic Equipment Instruments & Components company that produces thermography products, like infrared cameras, should not be in the renewable energy business
- an Electrical Equipment company, that serves the power generation, transmission and distribution markets
- Internet Software & Services -0.35%
- Aerospace & Defense -0.52%
- Chemicals -0.68%
- Machinery -2.64%
- Media -3.39%
- Specialty Retail -7.41%
- Aerospace & Defense -8.29%
- Food Products -10.09%
- Health Care Providers & Services -10.68%
- Food Products -12.82%
- Pharmaceuticals -13.67%
- Specialty Retail -16.06%
- Chemicals -19.47%
- Chemicals -23.89%
- Metals & Mining -31.24%
- Marine -35.14%
- Life Sciences Tools & Services -35.87%
- Machinery -39.40%
- Electronic Equipment Instruments & Components -41.40%
- Auto Components -43.60%
- Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels -46.35%
- Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels -58.79%
- Electrical Equipment -63.54%
- Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels -68.33%
Mr. Hsu bought ASIA on July 30th 2008 and convinced his $3.000/year paying subscribers to do the same with the following words:
I want you to buy ASIA under $15. I'm targeting $20 in the next six to eight months, which would give us a nice 33% gain.
Price was $13.48.
In the following weeks ASIA prepared to drop and Mr. Hsu was writing:
- Continue to buy ASIA under $15.
- Buy AsiaInfo under $15.
- Buy under $15
- I want you to continue to buy ASIA under $15. (saying please woud have been more polite...)
- [...] a coming rally in Chinese stocks and strength in the country's economy should boost our shares of [REMOVED] and AsiaInfo (NYSE: ASIA). I know that these holdings have been battling some severe market conditions, but they have all held their ground relatively well. These companies have solid fundamentals in strong sectors, and I look for shares to improve especially as we reach year-end and Chinese stocks move up. So continue to buy [REMOVED], and AsiaInfo under $15. (that was September 3rd and I am sure you witnessed the rally...)
- Buy under $15
- AsiaInfo Holdings (NASDAQ: ASIA) shares have traded slightly downward lately. [REMOVED - Septembe 17th - at this time he was slightly down 30.1% on ASIA]. Buy ASIA under $15.
- Buy under $15
- Buy under $15
- On October 8th, down 45.6%, Mr. Hsu started to say Hold ASIA
- Hold for the next 3 weeks and...
Finally, yesterday Mr. Hsu wrote:AsiaInfo Holdings (NASDAQ: ASIA) announced its third-quarter results last Thursday. The company's income was $6.1 million or 13 cents per share, slightly below last year's $6.3 million. ASIA's revenues clocked in at $44.8 million, up from $32.36 million last year. Although top-line growth is healthy, the decline in the company's profit margin is a problem.
The stock has bounced nicely with the broad market, and we will wait to sell it above $12.50 with a limit order. Hold and sell above $12.50
Now ASIA is at $11.23 and it should gain 11% before reaching its sell above price of $12.50. We have only 2 options now:
- ASIA will go down. The sell above limit will not be reached and Mr. Hsu will lower it, losing more money.
- ASIA will go up (but then you should buy now and keep it until it goes up)
Mr. Hsu's sell above strategy would work only if:
- ASIA will jump over $12.50 for a while and
- then decline
I do not see this as a very lickely event...
In any case, selling at the sell above price would bring a loss of 7%.
Posted Nov 5th 2008 10:00AM by Peter Cohan
Now that Senator Obama is President-elect Obama, what will he do with the economy and how can you profit from it? One way is to look for stocks that will benefit from a part of his proposed economic stimulus plan -- the creation of a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank that would spend $60 billion over 10 years on roads, bridges, ports, airports and rail lines.
One company that could benefit from this investment would be Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC), which engineers municipal infrastructure. The stock is down 57% in the last year due to concerns about whether states and cities will build new infrastructure in the face of a crumbling economy. But does the Jacobs' stock drop mean it will go up now that Obama is President?
If its earnings estimates are credible, I would say Jacobs could be a good investment. That's because the stock trades at a Price/Earnings to Growth Ratio (PEG) of 0.55 and a stock whose PEG is below 1.0 looks undervalued to me. Jacobs' 0.5 PEG is based on a P/E ratio of 11.4 on earnings growth of 20.8% to EPS of $4.05 in the fiscal year ending September 2009.
And if Obama enacts his infrastructure plan in 2009, Jacobs' earnings prospects could brighten even more.
Mr. Cohan's post corresponds to the C flag in the chart.
Magically, just after the post JEC moved from $39.70 to $35.52, losing an amazing 10% in a day.