Thursday, November 13, 2008

Other two 40% losses for Robert Hsu

Robert Hsu is the guy that is down 75% on COGO, down 80% on EJ, down 60% on USO, the guy that turned a 330% profit in a 40% loss with FMCN.
Yesterday, after another disastrous day on Wall Street, he sent out an order to his $3.000/year Asia Pacific Edge subscribers: Sell QCOM and Sell SOHU.
It was April 30th when Mr. Hsu told his subscribers I want you to buy SOHU under $75.
To convince his readers Mr. Hsu showed a chart of SOHU highlighting the price move from $25 in summer 2007 to $70 at the end of April 2008. Almost a 200% missed gain. What a perfect time to get in...
Mr. Hsu was targeting $100 in the early-August, which would give us a nice 34% short-term gain.
As you can see SOHU never got to $100, but it interesting to see what Mr. Hsu was saying about SOHU at various time and compare his opinion with the chart.

  • April 30th: bought at $69.13, buy below $75
  • May 7th: so far it has given us about a 9% gain. [REMOVED]. Buy SOHU below $75.
  • May 14th: Buy under $85.
  • May 21st: Continue to buy SOHU under $85.
  • May 28th: Buy under $85.
  • June 4th: [...] (NASDAQ: SOHU) with a 14.1% gain [...] Buy under $85.
  • June 11th: Buy under $85.
  • June 18th: Buy under $85.
  • June 23, 2008: The Beijing Olympic Games are just over a month away, and advertisers throughout China are gearing up. As you know, 60% to 70% of China's ads this year are linked to the Olympics. And our very own (NASDAQ: SOHU) is investing $14.5 million on a marketing drive ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
    That's why it's a bit surprising to me that Sohu, the official Internet sponsor of the Olympic Games, sold off nearly 14% on Friday. [REMOVED] Continue to buy SOHU under $85.
  • June 25th: Buy under $85.
  • July 2nd: Buy under $85.
  • July 9th: Buy under $85.
  • July 16th: Buy under $85.
  • July 23rd: Buy under $85.
  • July 30th: Continue to buy Sohu under $85.
  • August 6th: Buy under $85.
  • August 13th: In Asia Edge, we are profiting from China's hosting of the Olympics by investing in (NASDAQ: SOHU). Buy under $85.
  • August 20th: I think SOHU and NTES are good buys now.
  • August 27th: Buy SOHU under $85.
  • September 3rd: Buy under $85.
  • September 10th: Buy under $85.
  • September 17th (SOHU is at $56 at this time): Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) shares are under pressure with the rest of the stock market, as well. But let me remind you that the firm's core business is still quite strong. So I am expecting better days ahead for SOHU. Buy SOHU under $85.
  • September 24th: Buy under $85.
  • October 1st: Buy under $85.
  • October 8th: Buy under $85.
  • October 15th: Buy under $85.
  • October 22nd: Buy under $85.
  • October 29th: Buy under $85.
  • November 5th: Buy under $85.
  • November 12th: Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) is planning to boost spending on content services in order to attract more advertisers. But the stock was still hit yesterday in response to poor earnings news from Chinese advertising giant Focus Media. I think SOHU's business model is sufficiently different from FMCN's, so the hit was not justified. Nevertheless, SOHU has been a drag on the portfolio this year, and will likely struggle in a slowing economic environment. So I want you to cut your loss and sell the stock. Sell SOHU.

Sold at $40.97 for a 40% loss. I am tempted to buy SOHU one of next days...


On August 13th Mr. Hsu bought QCOM, at its highest price ever, except the IT bubble of 2000.

Buy price was $55.39 and Mr. Hsu wrote:

Buy QCOM under $55. I'm targeting $66 in the next six to eight months, which would give us a nice 20% gain.

No way. The decline started just a few days later, but Mr. Hsu, far from the concept of stop losses, with a market going from bad to worse, kept QCOM until yesterday.

  • August 20th: Buy under $55
  • August 27th: as we discussed a couple weeks ago with the recommendation of Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), I think the technology sector is offering some profitable opportunities. Technology stocks that have significant exposure to Asia should perform particularly well in upcoming weeks and months, despite an economic slowdown in the U.S.
  • September 3rd: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) shares traded lower this week, as well. The main reason for the recent decline was a horrendous earnings report from Dell. Due to the bad report, the tech sector has been weak, and QCOM and RIMM have traded down with their peers. I still think that QCOM and RIMM are good buys as both should perform well in the upcoming weeks and months despite a global economic slowdown. Continue to buy QCOM under $55 and RIMM under $135. You remember the 47% loss with RIMM, don't you?
  • September 10th: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is working with laptop manufacturers to make a low-cost Internet-based device to be sold in India early next year. QCOM continues to be a major beneficiary of Asian wireless markets' move into 3G technology. And I recommend that you continue to buy QCOM under $55.
  • September 17th: I want you to buy QCOM under $55.
  • September 24th: Buy under $55
  • October 1st: Buy under $55
  • October 8th: Buy under $55
  • October 15th: finally, sitting on a 34% loss, the buy price was lowered: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) has announced that the U.S. import ban against its cell phone chips has been thrown out. The ban was put in place when the ITC stated that Qualcomm's products infringe on a Broadcom patent. But the Appeals Court threw out the ban, saying that the ITC did not have the authority to issue it. The ITC will now revisit the case. QCOM says that it has already developed other software that does not infringe on Broadcom's patent. This is bullish for QCOM, a company that does not rely on bank financing. I want you to buy QCOM under $45.
  • October 22nd: Buy Below $45
  • October 29th: Buy Below $45
  • November 5th: Buy Below $45
  • November 12th: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) announced poor earnings last week, and as a results, share have sold off. During the third quarter, net income fell 29% to $878 million from $1.13 billion a year earlier. And the company said sales this quarter may fall as much as 6%, which would be the first decline since 2001. In light of the company's poor quarterly results, I recommend selling QCOM. Sell Qualcomm.

Close price was $32.57 for a 41.2% loss.


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