Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Turn 200% into a miserable break-even

He made it once more. Mr. Louis Navellier was able to turn a 200% gain into a break-even, and turn a 100% gain into a loss.

Some time ago Mr. Navellier put CF and TRA on Hold, telling his subscribers to sell after earning announcement.

Yesterday (February 10th 2009) he wrote to his Emerging growth subscribers;

Sell Alert for CF and TRA
In the
January and February issues, I told you to hold CF Industries (CF) and Terra Industries (TRA). In recent months, these two stocks have weakened fundamentally, and I wanted you to sell them the day after their quarterly earnings releases. Well, both TRA and CF reported today, so please close out your positions tomorrow.

At the same time he also told his Blue Chip Growth subscribers to sell CF (as we will see later on, for BCG subscribers CF was not a break-even, but a heavy loss).

Let's start from TRA.

In his July 2007 issue of Emerging Growth Mr. Navellier was suggesting to buy TRA by writing:

Terra Industries (TRA): This name may sound familiar: Terra Industries owns 60% of Terra Nitrogen (TNH), another Buy List stock. Terra Industries is one of the leading producers of nitrogen fertilizers in North America and is the top U.S. producer of methanol. Through its seven nitrogen plants, the company produces ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), and ammonium nitrate (AN). Terra Industries sells its products to dealers, retailers, cooperatives and chemical companies. At two of its plants, Terra Industries produces methanol, which is used by industrial customers to make oxygenated fuels or as a feedstock in other chemical processes.
In the past four quarters, Terra Industries sales rose 25.6%, while its earnings rose 122.2% due to a dramatic improvement in its profit margins, and analysts revised their earnings estimates 27.4% higher. The company trades at barely 16 times forecasted earnings and is an outstanding Moderate buy below $28.


In the following months TRA rose and Mr. Navellier too rose his buy below limit, as he always does.

August 2007 (it was the time where Mr. Navellier was also pushing CROX, as you may remember...)

Top 10 Stocks #4. Terra Nitrogen (TNH) reported that its second-quarter earnings soared 228.3% to $3.02 compared to just 92 cents in the same quarter one year ago! During the same period, sales rose 49% to $177.4 million. Terra Nitrogen’s dramatic earnings and sales improvement was due to higher sales volume and fertilizer prices, which it helped to partially offset by higher natural gas costs. Clearly, the company is continuing to benefit from increased nitrogen demand associated with U.S. corn growth.
Buy Below $24


September 2007

Top 10 Stock #7. Terra Industries’ (TRA) sales rose 32.5% in the last year while its earnings rose a whopping 1,420% due to an incredible improvement in its profit margin. The company was recently upgraded by Matrix Research. TRA is a great buy. However, the stock is thinly traded so remember to use limit orders within 15 cents of the previous day’s closing price.

Buy Below $29


October 2007

Buy Below $32


November 2007

Top 10 Stock #10. Terra Industries’ (TRA) third-quarter earnings rose 410% to 51 cents per share compared with 10 cents a share last year. Terra was up 30% this past month alone! The stock remains a great buy; just remember to place limit orders instead of market orders when purchasing it.

Buy Below $42


December 2007

Top 10 Stock #3. Terra Industries (TRA) was up 11.9% this week, bringing our gains since July to 48.6%! Analysts have revised their earnings estimates 38.3% higher in the past three months. Just remember to buy TRA by placing a limit order within 15 cents of its previous closing price.

Buy Below $42


January 2008

Top 10 Stock #2. Terra Industries (TRA) increased 28% this past month! During the past three months, the analyst community revised their consensus earnings estimates 26.9% higher, which usually foretells a nice earnings surprise. TRA is a thinly traded microcap, so I want you to buy it by placing a limit order within 15 cents of the stock’s previous close.

Buy Below $53


February 2008

Top 10 Stock #2. Terra Industries (TRA) also witnessed an increase in analyst expectations during the past three months. Specifically, analysts revised their earnings estimates 2.2% higher to a current $0.64 per share. Like CF, TRA’s next earnings report comes out on February 7. Now is your chance to benefit from the agricultural boom—we’re up 75% in TRA since July!

Buy Below $50


March 2008

I should add that what’s more important to me than anything are the fundamentals associated with our Emerging Growth stocks. So when fertilizer companies like CF Industries (CF), Terra Industries (TRA) and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) do not move up in a straight line, I don’t worry, since I know that their underlying fundamentals remain outstanding and that, in the long haul, these fundamentals will be recognized. This is why I keep bragging about how outstanding the fundamentals associated with our Emerging Growth stocks are at the present time. By the way, we’re sitting on 103% profits in CF, 77% in TRA and 59% in TNH. That’s the power of superior fundamentals.

Top 10 Stocks #3. Terra Industries (TRA), another fertilizer company, saw its earnings surge 600% on $570.2 million in revenue. CEO Michael Bennett expects demand will remain strong due to record orders that the company has already received. The stock trades at less than 12 times estimated earnings. It’s another thinly traded micro cap, so please place limit orders within 15 cents of its previous close.

Buy Below $51


April 2008

Buy Below $41


May2008

Top 10 Stocks #8. Terra Industries (TRA) reported that firstquarter operating income came in at $168.3 million, compared with $67.2 million for the same period last year. The company also expects continued robust nitrogen demand as a result of significant corn and wheat plantings next year. The stock trades at barely 11 times estimated earnings and remains an outstanding buy!

Buy Below $47


June 2008

Top 10 Stocks #9. Terra Industries (TRA) is one of the leading North American producers of nitrogen fertilizers and is the top U.S. producer of methanol. The company recently announced that its first quarter earnings soared due to higher nitrogen prices and record sales volume. Terra Industries’ first quarter earnings surged to 1,516.7% to $100.2 million or 97 cents per share compared to $5.9 million or 6 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. The stock trades at less than 11 times estimated earnings and remains an outstanding buy!

Buy Below $46


July 2008

Buy Below $58 (did anybody buy here?)


August 2008

Top 10 Stocks #8. Terra Industries (TRA)
Terra is the top U.S. producer of methanol and one of the leading North American producers of nitrogen fertilizers. Second-quarter profits rose nearly 200% over last year, which was a whopping 59% earnings surprise! Best of all, TRA trades at barely 11 times estimated earnings.


In last week’s update, I told you how our fertilizer company Terra Industries (TRA) reported an earnings surprise of more than 50%. Well, this week, another one of our fertilizer companies posted an earnings surprise of 40%! Check out my special Earnings Supplement to read all about it. I have other great numbers I want to share with you from across the Buy list, but especially in our energy and agriculture picks.

Buy Below $63 (did anybody buy here?)


September 2008

Buy Below $56



October 2008

Buy Below $26


November 2008

Buy Below $27


December 2008

Buy Below $15


January 2009

Hold


February 2009

Sell (Close Price $23.43)

Here is TRA's chart:


As usual: how can the last idiot wait for a stock to go from $55 to $15? The 10% loss of Mr. Navellier is NOTHING compared to those who bought TRA at $55 last summer.


Let's move now to CF. Here is CF's chart:



As you can see CF was over $160 in June 2008. Try to guess the buy limit at that time...
Buy below $188
. Yeah, to sell it at $55 eight months later!!!
Let's start from the beginning.
July 2007 - CF enters Emerging Growth portfolio at $59.89

CF Industries Holdings (CF) is an agricultural company that manufactures and markets nitrogenous and phosphate fertilizers. The company operates a network of manufacturing and distribution facilities primarily in the Midwest. CF changed its structure from a cooperative to a holding company when it began trading publicly in 2005. Prior to its IPO, CF Industries had been owned by eight regional agricultural cooperatives, including Land O’Lakes, Growmark and CHS.
As our other fertilizer company Terra Nitrogen (TNH) demonstrated last month, the fertilizer business is booming, especially since farmers are trying to boost their production of corn and other crops to satisfy demand for corn-based biofuels like ethanol. In the past four quarters, CF’s sales rose 11.8%, while its earnings rose a dramatic 331.1%. Analysts have been busy revising their earnings estimates higher on CF—to the tune of 22.6%! Like I’ve said, such aggressive upgrades normally precede stellar earnings. CF trades at barely 17 times forecasted earnings. It has been appreciating steadily and appears to be aggressively accumulated by institutional investors. That’s a good sign as we enter second quarter earnings season! Buy this Moderate stock below $66.
August 2007

CF Industries Holdings’ (CF) second-quarter earnings rose $1.65 per share compared to 77 cents per share last year. Believe it or not, CF Industries announced that its second quarter results included a 41 cents per share charge due to non-cash pre-tax unrealized losses on natural gas derivatives. As a result, the company’s second quarter results could have been even higher. The company trades at barely 18 times earnings and is still a great buy.
Buy Below $61
September 2007

CF Industries Holdings’ (CF) second-quarter earnings rose $1.65 per share compared with 77 cents per share last year. Believe it or not, CF Industries announced that its second-quarter results included a 41 cents per share charge due to non-cash pretax unrealized losses on natural gas derivatives. As a result, the company’s second-quarter results could have been even higher. The company trades at barely 18 times earnings and is still a great buy.
Buy Below $73
October 2007

CF Industries Holdings (CF) is trading at barely 16 times earnings. We’ve made more than 21% in the stock since July. Analysts have revised their consensus earnings estimates 31.4% higher on CF in the last three months, and I am very optimistic about the company’s upcoming third-quarter earnings report.
Buy Below $81
November 2007

CF Industries Holdings’ (CF) was up 22% this month. Its third-quarter earnings came in at $1.52 per share compared to just 13 cents per share last year.
Analysts expected earnings of 97 per share, so CF posted a whopping 56.7% earnings surprise! CF trades at barely 18 times earnings and remains a great buy.
Buy Below $99
December 2007
CF Industries (CF):We’ve made more than 50% in CF since July! In the past 3 months, analysts have revised their earnings estimates 22.3% higher.
You know what that means. The company trades at barely 14 times estimated earnings and is an outstanding buy.

Buy Below $100


January 2008
CF Industries (CF): I like what I see in CF, which is up 85.7% for us since July. Apparently, analysts do, too—the stock recently received a 22.5% earnings upgrade. The company trades at barely 19 times estimated earnings and remains an outstanding buy!

Buy Below $123


February 2008

CF Industries (CF): Analysts have revised their fourth-quarter earnings estimates on CF 4.3% higher in the past three months. They now expect to see earnings of at least $1.70 a share. Typically, positive analyst earnings revisions precede earnings surprises, so I am very optimistic about CF Industries’ earnings announcement on February 7. With other fertilizer companies releasing stunning earnings reports, my expectations for CF are extremely high. The stock trades at barely 17 times estimated earnings and remains an outstanding buy!
Buy Below $120
March 2008
This is why I keep bragging about how outstanding the fundamentals associated with our Emerging Growth stocks are at the present time. By the way, we’re sitting on 103% profits in CF, 77% in TRA...

CF Industries (CF): Fertilizer companies have been harvesting profits this earnings season.
CF’s fourth-quarter earnings multiplied on growing global demand. Profits grew to $2.38 per share from just $0.14 cents last year. We’re up 103% since July 2007 and 18% since its earnings announcement in February!
Buy Below $136
April 2008

CF Industries (CF): Production has resumed at one of CF’s Canadian plants, which was taken offline in February for internal maintenance. The fertilizer business is booming, so as CF resumes full production capacity, it will be making even more fertilizer for farmers to feed the world’s growing population, and thus more profits for us shareholders. We’re up 81% since July!
Buy Below $120
May 2008

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF): Obviously, due to record high prices for corn and other crops, the fertilizer business is hot. Factor in farmers who are trying to boost their production of corn and other crops for biofuels like ethanol, and you’ve got a great business.
In the first quarter, CF Industries reported that its earnings soared to $2.77 per share compared with $1.02 per share in the same quarter a year earlier.
During the same period, net sales rose to $667.3 million, up 41% from last year, driven by higher prices for all of the company’s products. The stock trades at barely 13 times forecasted earnings and remains an outstanding buy!
Buy Below $155
June 2008

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) is an agricultural company that manufactures and markets fertilizers. Due to record prices for crops, the fertilizer business is hot. In the first quarter, the company reported that its earnings soared 171.6% to $158.8 million or $2.77 per share compared with $57.2 million or $1.02 per share in the same quarter a year earlier. During the same period, sales rose 41% to $667.3 million. The stock trades at less than 11 times forecasted earnings and remains an outstanding buy!
Buy Below $150
July 2008 (CF also enters Blue Chip Growth Portfolio at $155.08)
Emerging Growth

For example, fertilizer maker CF Industries (CF) is up a stunning 181.73% in just over a year, and other agricultural chemical companies are experiencing similar exponential growth!
In the near future, high food and energy prices are here to stay. The only thing that remains certain is that magic word “stagflation,” or slow economic growth and soaring inflation. We have a choice as investors: We can continue to stress out, or we can choose to use our heads and profit. Remember, our oil service companies and agricultural stocks are helping to solve current problems of expensive energy and food by increasing supply.

CF Industries Holdings (CF) is a regular on the Top 10 Stocks list. An agricultural company that manufactures and markets nitrogenous and phosphate fertilizers, CF has been cashing in thanks to the record demand for corn and other crops. The fertilizer business is hot, since the chemicals help farmers boost crop yields. Recent flooding in the Midwest will only perpetuate this environment. In the past three months, Wall Street has revised CF’s earnings estimates 19% higher. That likely means another earnings surprise is in the works, so I am very optimistic about this stock’s next quarterly announcement.
The stock trades at barely 12 times forecasted earnings and remains an outstanding buy below $179.
Buy Below $179
Blue Chip Growth

CF Industries (CF) is a regional agricultural firm that manufactures and markets nitrogenous and phosphate fertilizers. The company operates a network of manufacturing and distribution facilities, primarily in the Midwest. Before it began to trade publicly in 2005, the company had been owned by eight regional agricultural co-ops, including Land O’Lakes, Growmark and CHS.
Fertilizer companies are prospering because farmers need to boost crop yields to meet the global demand for food. CF is no different, benefiting from positive analyst upgrades and trading at less than nine times forecasted earnings. The stock is a great buy below $176.

CF Industries (CF), a new addition this week, is one of the bright spots amid the current gloomy market for all the reasons I've already told you. Dive in to this agricultural stock below $176.
Buy Below $174 (I am not joking: he wrote twice 4176 and once $174 in the same issue)
August 2008

Emerging Growth

CF Industries Holdings (CF) This fertilizer giant put up earnings you’ll have to see to believe! See the attached Earnings Supplement for details.
Despite this breakout performance, CF Industries trades at less than 10 times 2008’s earnings and is an outstanding buy as demand for agricultural chemicals remains strong.

CF Tops Forecats by 40%!
Last week, I pointed out the phenomenal earnings of Terra (TRA), which posted a 50% earnings surprise, to show that our heavy investment in the agriculture sector was paying off. Well, further proof comes this week from CF Industries (CF), which reported a tremendous 40% earnings surprise! Wall Street was looking for $3.60 a share, and CF reported $5.02. This stock’s income soared by more than 200% on high demand and predicted that the appetite for its fertilizer products will continue to stay strong into the spring of next year.
Buy Below $188

Blue Chip Growth

Fertilizer giant CF Industries (CF) managed to claw back from the panic selling in early July, and it has the fundamentals we require to shine this earnings season. Demand for CF products remains strong amid the global food crunch, and I expect that to be reflected in a strong quarterly report.
Buy Below $186

September 2008

Emerging Growth

CF Industries (CF)
This agricultural chemical company dipped a bit as commodity prices softened but is kicking into high gear again. Recently, CF Industries was added to the S&P 500, which forced major institutional investors to buy the stock. Yet, this stock trades at less than 9 times forecasted earnings and remains an outstanding buy!
Buy Below $170
Blue Chip Growth

Agricultural chemical producer CF Industries (CF) posted the second-biggest earnings surprise of all our Blue Chip Growth stocks this quarter, at a stunning 39.4%. This company’s 2Q profits were more than three times those of 2007! The stock has pulled back a bit recently because of the profit taking affecting all of our commodity stocks, but numbers like that won’t go unrecognized by Wall Street for long. Because of its tremendous earnings performance and revised outlook for the second half of the year, I still think CF is one of the best stocks on our Buy List.
Buy Below $144

October 2008

Emerging Growth
Buy Below $66

Blue Chip Growth
Buy Below $138


November 2008

Emerging Growth:

You’ve started to see the beginning of how big our potential profits are this week. Since Monday’s close, the average Emerging Growth stock is up more than 20%, and three stocks—CF Industries (CF), Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM), and Whiting Petroleum (WLL)—were up more than 40%!
Buy Below $78

Blue Chip Growth
Buy Below $72


December 2008

Emerging Growth
Buy Below $56
Blue Chip Growth

The stocks with the strongest profits remain our fertilizer stocks, which were simply stunning, with Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT) all posting better-than-expected earnings and over 100% sales growth. If you doubted whether our ag picks were worth holding on to, I hope this helped prove that these companies still have a lot of strength.
Note: that day CF closed at $50.39 (down from the buy price of $155.08) and Navellier dares to write what you read above...
Buy Below $60


January 2009
Emerging Growth

CF Industries (CF), Terra Industries (TRA) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) have all weakened fundamentally, and I want you to sell them the day after their upcoming quarterly earnings.
Hold CF
Blue Chip Growth
Buy Below $55
February 2009
Sell CF (close price on February 10th: $53.60)
Summary
Emerging Growth
Buy Price 59.89
Sell Price around $54
Performance 10% loss (unless you bought it at $160 as Navellier suggested last summer)
Blue Chip Growth
Buy Price 155.08
Sell Price around $54
Performance 65% loss

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