Thursday, March 12, 2009

Louis Navellier and IPCR

In my archive I found a couple of trades on IPCR for Louis navellier's $5.000/year Global Growth.

The first trade was initiated on August 4th 2008 with a Buy advice:

Bermuda's IPC Holdings (IPCR) sells property catastrophe reinsurance through its principal operating subsidiary, IPCRe Limited. Reinsurance pays only after an insurance company's losses on natural or man-made disasters exceed a specific amount. IPC Holdings also provides short-tail property reinsurance. Headquartered in tax-friendly Bermuda, the firm insures large insurance companies worldwide, even though most of its clients are based in the U.S. To better understand this company, just watch The Weather Channel and study the hurricane outlook. Due to fewer natural disasters lately, IPC Holdings has been rallying.

Buy price was $31.91 and Buy below was $33.20

August 11th

Buy below $34.00

August 18th

Buy below $33.84

August 25th

Buy below $32.70

September 2nd

Buy below $33.76

September 8th

Buy below $33.79

September 15th

Buy below $32.15

September 22nd

Buy below $31.92

September 29th

Our first earnings announcements will be coming out during the week of October 20 to 24, beginning with Icon (ICLR) on October 21, then Alcon (ACL) and Perdigao (PDA) on October 23, followed by IPC Holdings (IPCR) on October 24. I will bring you the full list next week. Earnings announcement season should give our stocks a welcome boost, as the market will return to watching fundamentals, instead of being obsessed with the latest news on the credit crisis.

Buy below $30.09

October 6th

Bermuda's IPC Holdings Ltd. (IPCR) will report earnings on Friday, October.

Buy below $28.10

October 13th

Bermuda's IPC Holdings (IPCR) estimated that its insurance costs from hurricanes Gustav and Ike would subtract about $90 million from its third-quarter net income. The stock declined on this news plus the company's disclosure of a modest $11.2 in direct holdings of fixed-maturity securities issued by Lehman Brothers. In addition, IPC held securities issued by Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., and Wachovia Corp. and their subsidiaries — specifically, $28.5 million, $33.0 million and $12.0 million (par values), respectively. The company has no holdings in AIG or Washington Mutual and only a small amount of indirect exposure to preferred or common shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This exposure is via Vanguard mutual funds.

Bermuda's IPC Holdings (IPCR) will report earnings Friday, October 24.

Buy below $24.55

October 20th

Among our provisional (“sell above”) stocks, Bermuda’s IPC Holdings (IPCR) will report its earnings on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 a.m. EDT, about an hour before the market opens. So watch to see if we get a bounce at the end of the week—and if we do, sell into strength!

Sell Above $22.10 (Louis claims selling at $22 what he payed $31 means selling into strength)

October 27th

On Friday, October 24, IPC Holdings (IPCR)surpassed its 'sell above' target and is no longer on the Buy List. (it was actually on the Sell List)

Last week, we sold Bermuda's IPC Holdings (IPCR) when it hit its "Sell Above" price on Friday. This week, I anticipate we'll have a handful of sells on up-ticks–so make sure you take a look at the revised "Sell Watch List" to get to know the latest price targets.

This first trade generated a loss of around 30% for Mr. Navellier and his subscribers.

But one month later he decided to buy IPCR again, at a higher price compared to previous sell... $25.63, corresponding to a 16% missed profit.

November 24th 2008

Bermuda's IPC Holdings Ltd. (IPCR) sells property catastrophe reinsurance on an excess-of-loss basis for primary insurers, sold through its principal operating subsidiary, IPCRe Limited. Reinsurance pays only after an insurance company's losses on natural or man-made disasters exceed a specific amount. IPC Holdings also provides short-tail property reinsurance. The company insures large insurance companies worldwide, but most of its clients are based in the U.S. IPC Holding has estimated that Hurricanes Ike and Gustav cost it about $90 million.

Buy below $26.65

December 1st

Buy below $25.98

December 8th

Our other Bermuda insurance stocks, Assured Guaranty (AGO) and IPC Holdings (IPCR), have turned in healthy gains in a short period, and I'm confident Montpelier will follow suit.

Buy below $30.30

December 15th

Buy below $29.46

December 22nd

Buy below $29.25

December 29th

Our big Bermuda focus paid off, however, with our seven stocks headquartered there posting an average gain of almost 2% since the market's close last Monday.

Buy below $29.54

January 5th

Buy below $31.04

January 12th

Buy below $29.81

January 20th

Buy below $28.51

January 26th

Buy below $28.11

February 2nd

Buy below $26.98

February 9th

Buy below $27.63

February 17th

This week, we'll get earnings reports from Companhia Brasieira de Distribuicao Grupo (CBD), IPC Holdings Ltd (IPCR) and Montpelier Re Holdings (MRH) and Copa Holdings (CPA).

Buy below $27.62

February 23rd

Bermuda's IPC Holdings (IPCR) bucked the tide with a small gain last week, after the company reported positive fourth quarter results, well above consensus estimates. Earnings were down, due to exceptional hurricane settlements, but earnings were down less than feared. The company's operating earnings excluding one-time items were $0.84 per share last quarter, down from $2.09 a share year earlier. Revenue fell 15% to $120.1 million, but analysts had been expecting much lower earnings (58 cents per share) on just $105.1 million in revenue, for a 45% earnings surprise and 14% revenue surprise. Also, net premiums written nearly tripled to $39.5 million.

Buy below $27.37

March 2nd

Buy below $25.73

March 9th

This week, I recommend that you sell Bermuda's IPC Holdings (IPCR) and Montpelier Re Holdings (MRH). MRH has been very week recently since a poor earnings report to end February.
Bermuda has been a big part of our Buy List, but in anticipation of a weakening dollar we need to start trimming weaker stocks in this region. Since Bermuda's currency is pegged to the dollar, companies headquartered there are often linked to the fate of the greenback. Also, I want to make sure we stay diversified in this difficult market to make sure we can resist future declines. Since we have a number of insurance plays in the financial sector, we'll cut these two loose and replace them with companies in other industries to reduce our risk.

Price was around $20.89 for another 18% loss.

You can remark that every single buy below price in these seven months was higher than the actual sell price.

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