Monday, January 26, 2009

Louis Navellier and ATVI

Mr. Navellier actually said to sell ATVI after the quarter results, extected the second week of February.
This does not change much my opinion on him sayng "Buy Below $19" in July...

From 43% gain to 32% loss... This is the quick summary of Louis Navellier trade with Activision-Blizzard.

Mr. Navellier bought ATVI at $13.47 on mid-March 2008. He was writing:

Activision (ATVI) is the video game company behind “Tony Hawk’s Underground,” “Doom,” “Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock” and “Call of Duty.”
The company also makes games based on licensed properties from LucasArts (Star Wars), Marvel (Spider-Man and X-Men) and DreamWorks Animation (Shrek). In late 2007, Activision agreed to sell a 52% stake to Vivendi in a deal valued at $9.8 billion.
The company’s latest quarterly earnings rose 87% to $0.86 per share compared with $0.46 per share last year. Activision had raised its earnings forecast twice for the quarter and yet the company still beat analysts’ estimates by 7.5%! Traditionally, the stock has been “recession-proof” in that a large proportion of its customers are young and unaffected by a declining job market.

Buy below $15 (split adjusted)

So Mr. Navellier's subscribers got in with ATVI.

In May 2008 issue of his Blue Chip Growth newsletter Mr. Navellier rose the Buy Below price to $15.5.

Less than a month later ATVI jumped from $14 to $16.

In June 2008 issue Mr. Navellier rose to $18.5 theBuy Below limit (as he always does when prices go up).

Buy Below $19 in July issue, $18 in August.

In September Mr. Navellier wrote:

Activision (ATVI) has been soaring as Americans continue to use video games to escape from their troubles. July video game sales jumped 28%, totalling almost $1.2 billion! Consumers who are looking to cut back on other expenses are opting for video games instead of more costly forms of entertainment. As the manufacturer of some of the most popular video game titles out there, ATVI has been cashing in on this trend.

Buy Below $19.

In October 2008

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) split 2-for-1 on September 8, so I hope you didn’t panic when you saw the stock price cut in half recently! Remember, the first thing you should do when you see this happen unexpectedly is to check recent news because the culprit is almost always a split. As for ATVI, we’ve enjoyed gains of more than 30% in this hot stock since I told you to buy it in April, and I expect even bigger profits once the holiday season pushes video game sales even higher!

ATVI was even #1 in the Top 5 Stocks for October.

#1. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) knows video games aren’t just for teenage boys—nearly 60% of Americans play video games! Fully 40% of gamers are women, and 65% of game players are older than 18. ATVI is at the top of the heap when it comes to video games. With hits like Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft, there’s not a gamer out there who hasn’t played some of this company’s titles. Ask your grandkids about these titles and watch their eyes light up! As the market for video games grows, Activision Blizzard will continue to be a great buy thanks to its high-quality products. Buy Below $20.

What a timely advice... look at the chart. Here, subscribers enjoying the imaginary 30% profit are close to a rude awakening...

Buy Below $15 in November

In December 2008 issue ATVI was againg number 1 of the top 5 stocks:

#1. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is the video game company behind World of Warcraft, Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and other leading titles. While many other industries are fretting over weak holiday sales, the gaming industry has no such problems ahead. Video game sales jumped 18% to $1.31 billion in October even as economy sputtered, and we can expect strong sales in December as well. ATVI posted a stunning 75% earnings surprise on Nov. 5 and clearly will capitalize on this trend. Buy Below $12.

Buy Below $10 in January and...

SELL ATVI on January 20th at $9.04.

32% loss... What an Expert...


Anonymous said...

Wait, no, that's not what the letter said. While he announced the sell in his January letter, he also says to sell ATVI *after* they report earnings in February, in order to (hopefully) reduce losses from a potential pop after ATVI reports.

JC said...

What an idiot.

Thank you for this site. I received his newsletter but thankfully did not subscribe. ATVI is a nice company IMO but jeez this guy has no patience and no common sense.

Least he could have done was to tell his customers to buy down or wait it out but to sell at such a loss? Inexcusable.

Typical panicky buy high sell low mark of an amateur. I could have given you better advice (for free)

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