Saturday, January 31, 2009

John Lansing ParabolicOptions Sold Positions for 2009‏

In addition to trending123, John Lansing also publisher ParabolicOptions.

One of our readers just sent in the performances of the 2009 closed trades and the current portfolio.

Here they are:

2009 Closed Positions

SWN 12/23/08 - 01/16/09
SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceClosed PriceG/L $G/L %

APA 12/23/08 - 01/16/09
SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceClosed PriceG/L $G/L %
APAMNBuyJan 70 Puts$4.70$0.05-4.65-98.94%

FSYS 12/19/08 - 01/16/09
SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceClosed PriceG/L $G/L %
QQMFBuyJan 30 Puts$3.00$0.05-2.95-98.33%

EDU 12/18/08 - 01/16/09
SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceClosed PriceG/L $G/L %
EDUMIBuyJan 45Puts$2.10$0.03-2.07-98.57%

GDP 12/09/08 - 01/16/09
SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceClosed PriceG/L $G/L %

EOG 12/09/08 - 01/16/09
SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceClosed PriceG/L $G/L %

Current Portfolio

SymbolActionMonthStrikeTypeEntry PriceLast PriceG/L $G/L %

All this for $1995/year

Friday, January 30, 2009

Louis Navellier and POT

Quite a long retm trade for Mr. Navellier with POT. Over one year and a half to get extraordinary results.
Let's start from the beginning. In his June 2007 issue of Blue Chip Growth Mr. Navellier wrote:

Potash Corporation (POT) is the world’s leading producer of potash, commonly used as
fertilizer. The company also produces nitrogen (used in fertilizer and a variety of industrial and
consumer products) and phosphate (for feed products, food products, and detergents). The
company has about 20 plants in North America, Brazil, Chile and Trinidad with an annual production capacity of 12.5 million tons of potash, which represents more than 20% of the world’s capacity. Now that food prices are rising, farmers are trying to boost their output with fertilizer.
The company recently announced that its first-quarter earnings surged 55.5% to $1.85 per share compared with $1.19 per share in last year’s first quarter. Sales rose 34% in the quarter to
$1.15 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $1.71 per share on sales of $913.6 million, so the company posted an 8.2% earnings surprise and a whopping 25.9% sales surprise! POT also raised its earnings forecast, announced a 3-for-1 split on May 30 and doubled its dividend! These are all very positive developments, in my book. Buy POT for your Moderate portfolio below $221. ($73.66 split adjusted)
Buy price was $205.95 ($68.65 split adjusted)
One month later POT gained around 13% and Mr. Navellier was writing:

Top 5 stocks: #5. Potash Corporation (POT) had a great first month on our Buy List, rising 13%. The world’s largest producer of potash, which is used as a fertilizer, and a miner of uranium said it’s looking to buy another fertilizer company. Buy below $83.
August 2007

Top 5 stocks: #3. Potash Corporation (POT): Potash is seeing business skyrocket in the U.S. to meet our growing demand for ethanol. During the past four quarters, the company posted 34% sales growth and 21.6% earnings growth. Analysts have raised their earnings estimates 15.3% higher on POT, so stock up on this stock before its July 26 earnings report! Buy Potash below $89.
September 2007

Top 5 stocks: #3. Potash Corporation (POT) is seeing business skyrocket in the U.S. to meet the growing demand for ethanol. During the past four quarters, the company has posted 34% sales growth and 21.6% earnings growth. Its second-quarter earnings jumped 63%. The company declared this quarter as their best ever, with $285.7 million, or 88 cents per share in profits. POT is an excellent buy below $81.
October 2007

Top 5 stocks: #4. Potash Corporation (POT) is seeing business skyrocket in the U.S. to meet the growing demand for ethanol. The stock is up an incredible 18% since last month. I can’t say I’m surprised. POT is an excellent buy below $95.
November 2007
Buy Below $114
December 2007

Top 5 stocks: #3. Potash Corp (POT) had been out of range most of the month but cooled off when its earnings came out. Sales were up 32%; earnings were up 23%, but that was actually 8.5% below analysts’ expectations. Like MOS, I believe POT will benefit from higher potash prices and continued global demand. The stock is a great buy under $117.
January 2008
Buy Below $134
February 2008
Buy Below $134
March 2008

Top 5 stocks: #4. Potash Corp. (POT) floored analysts with its $1.16 per share earnings in the fourth quarter. Analysts had only expected the company to earn $0.97, so POT posted a stunning 19.6% earnings surprise. The company predicts even more profits in the year ahead. POT, by the way, is the world’s largest fertilizer company. We’re up 115% in the company. Buy it below $160.
April 2008

Top 5 stocks: #5. Potash Corporation (POT) is yet another fastgrowing agricultural stock, handing us over 133% profi ts since June 2007. recently listed Potash as one of its top 10 “Rocket Stocks” that are set to climb in the coming days. Don’t miss out. Buy POT below $173.
May 2008

Top 5 stocks: #4. Potash Corporation (POT) is also benefiting as an agriculture stock. On Friday, April 18, 2008 the company posted a new 52-week high of $204.67. This climb should come as no surprise to us as we’ve managed to bring in over a 198% gain in Potash. Buy POT below $221.
June 2008
Buy Below $225
July 2008

Potash (POT), the fertilizer giant, is another favorite for the Top 5 list that returns. I’m confident that there’s still a lot of money to still be made in this stock, so keep buying it below $245.
August 2008

Agricultural companies like Potash (POT), which has given us almost 200% in profit in just over a year, will continue to be winners for us.

Yet another fertilizer pick, Potash (POT), is looking great. Analysts have been inching expectations up in anticipation of Potash’s July 24 quarterly report, and I expect a big bump in this stock’s value after the numbers are released.
Buy Below $236
September 2008
Buy Below $182
October 2008

Top 5 stocks: #4. Another sleeping giant is our other top fertilizer company, Potash (POT). This Buy List stock has pulled back from its June highs but should also rebound strongly thanks to its strong fundamental ratings. Several factors, including raw material shortages and biofuel demand, are helping fertilizer producers like Mosaic and Potash push through this brief patch of turbulence. The price of potash, the key fertilizer for which POT takes its name, is expected to reach $767 a ton this month—up an astonishing $600 a ton since early 2007! Potash is a great buy since its margins will continue to be strong through the end of 2008.
Buy Below $181

November 2008

Buy Below $93 (POT lost 50% in one month and Louis says nothing...)

December 2008

[...] CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT) all posting better-than-expected earnings and over 100% sales growth. If you doubted whether our ag picks were worth holding on to, I hope this helped prove that these companies still have a lot of strength.
Buy Below $81

January 2009

Of course, some of our current Blue Chip ag stocks like Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) are C-rated in PortfolioGrader, but I do not think it is wise to move out of these stocks yet because they are grossly undervalued and are sure to move upward as we approach the release of quarterly reports.
Depending on each individual stock’s performance and fundamentals this earnings season, we will likely sell some of our ag picks into strength after quarterly reports come out. Potash in particular has a history of posting impressive earnings surprises—to the tune of a 420% earnings jump last quarter over the previous year—so we are better off riding that wave once quarterly reports are released. So I am making an exception to my rule of selling stocks rated C or less in PortfolioGrader; don’t sell any of these stocks yet! I will be sure to tell you when the time is right.
Hold POT

February 2009

Since MON and MOS have already released quarterly reports, sell them right away. Looking ahead, please make sure you mark your calendar right now for Friday, January 23, as the day I want you to sell Potash. That’s because the company reports earnings a day before, and you will get the best price for your shares. To remind you of this trade, I will send you a Sell Alert via e-mail the day POT reports earnings.
POT open Price on January 23rd was $69.56. That makes a 1.3% gain for Mr. Navellier (excluding transaction cost...).
But last July somebody may have bought it at $241 (below the $245 limit) for an outstanding 71% loss!!!

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Robert Hsu sells CHU

New look but old results for Robert Hsu's $3.000/year Asia Edge newsletter.
This time Mr. Hsu is losing some 20% on CHU.

He decided it was time to buy CHU on December 3rd 2008.

New Buy: China Unicom

As you know, China has the world's largest population with about 1.3 billion people. So it's no surprise that China also has the world's biggest mobile market with nearly 600 million users. That's almost double the size of the total population of the U.S. And with nearly half of China's population still without a cell phone, you can see that the telecom industry in China still has tremendous potential.

In addition, [blah blah blah].

That's why I am recommending China Unicom this week as a way to take advantage of the booming telecom industry and the build out of 3G networks in China.

Based in Hong Kong, China Unicom is an integrated telecom service provider [blah blah blah].

For the first half of 2008, China Unicom's revenue grew 4% to 35 billion yuan ($5.1 billion) from the same period of last year, while profit doubled to 4.4 billion yuan from 2.2 billion yuan. Its revenue derived from GSM mobile value-added service increased by 22%, and represented 24% of service revenue from GSM mobile business. In addition, the company carries very small debt, and its debt-to-capitalization ratio was just 3.5% at the end of June.

Future Growth

Given its technology advantage and its imminent 3G license, I'm confident that China Unicom will be successful in the New Year. In fact, [blah blah blah].

China Unicom will definitely be one of the major beneficiaries from the upcoming 3G license issuance. And it doesn't hurt that the increase of foreign ownership in the company is a long-term strategic commitment, which I believe is positive for China Unicom. I want you to buy CHU under $12. I'm targeting a nice 25%+ gain in the next four to six months.

Buy price was $12.08.

December 10th
On our Asia Edge buy list, China Unicom (NYSE: CHU), ********* ***** (NYSE: ***), and the iShares ******* **** ****** (NYSE: ***) all fit into this category. And they are the best places to be putting your money right now.
Buy Below $12

December 17th
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) will benefit from the announcement by the information and industry ministry that China will issue third-generation mobile wireless licenses by the end of 2008 or early next year. As we've discussed before, China Unicom will run networks with WCDMA platforms, while China Mobile will run the TD-SCDMA platform and China Telecom will run the CDMA platform.
Overall, China will invest a total of 800 billion yuan ($116 billion) to provide these third-generation mobile services. And China Unicom, itself, has already passed a budget of RMB 80 billion for WCDMA network construction next year. China Unicom continues to be a great way to take advantage of the 3G network build-outs in China. Continue to buy CHU on dips under $12.

December 24th
Buy under $12

December 31st
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) said last week that its GSM mobile phone users increased 996,000 during November. Its GSM mobile phone subscribers now totals 133 million users. In addition, the company's local phone users increased by 1.52 million, bringing the company's total to 105 million. And CHU's broadband users jumped 234,000 to 25.43 million.
The increase in users is a bullish sign for CHU. I expect the company to grow and perform well in 2009. Continue to buy CHU on dips under $12.

January 7th
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) said today that its merger with China Netcom has been completed. The deal is part of the Chinese government's restructuring of the telecom market last year. Armed with its new 3G license, China Unicom will likely grow faster than its rivals in the future. Buy CHU under $12.

January 14th
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) will launch its 3G technology service in May in 55 cities. By the end of this year, the company plans to have the service launched in 280 cities. CHU is investing at least 60 billion yuan ($8.78 billion) to develop its 3G network this year, and another 40 billion yuan next year. And it looks for the 3G business to become profitable next year. Right now, CHU shares are down a bit, as investors sold Chinese wireless stocks into the 3G announcement, anticipating large capital expenditure from the operators. But in the long term, I think the investment will pay off for CHU. Buy CHU under $12.

January 21st
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) will launch its 3G services on May 17 in 55 Chinese cities. Its current mobile users will be able to switch to the new technology that day, and new users will be able to sign up, too.
In other news, CHU said that its mobile subscribers jumped last month to 133.37 million. In addition, CHU said that December saw a drop in subscribers to both its fixed line and broadband services. CHU had 100.15 million fixed line subscribers, down 4.87 million from November, while its broadband user base dropped by 22,000 to 25.42 million. This was the first time a Chinese operator recorded a loss in high-speed internet users in 2008. Fixed-line is a declining business in China, so I am not concerned about these developments. And the Broadband loss is miniscule compared to the company's gains in mobile subscribers.
The stock dove 12% on Monday due to investors overselling. So for right now, I want you to hold CHU.

January 28th
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) said that it expects its 2008 profit to have increased by more than 50%, mainly because it sold some of its operations last year. That includes selling its CDMA operations to China Telecom for 43.8 billion yuan in October.
The stock has bounced in the past four sessions following the sharp sell-off after China's 3G-license approval. If you recall, I thought the 3G license would add nicely to CHU's bottom line, and that it would receive the most advanced 3G mobile-phone network license from the Chinese government. But because of the higher-than-expected costs to upgrade their 3G infrastructure, the company has been struggling in recent weeks.
So I recommend that we use the current bounce – shares are up 9% in the past five days -- to sell China Unicom and put the proceeds to work in Mittal Arcelor. Sell CHU.

Close price was $9.51.

Mr. Hsu's target: +25%
Actual result: -21%

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Profit from the green (but not as Tobin Smith does...)

You may have received in your mailbox a spam message promoting this book. Something line:


I just can't sleep. My new book Billion Dollar Green has justcome out and in it I show investors like you everything they needto make life-altering profits from the Green Wave.

President Obama has been a proponent of green energy for a while and now that he's in office it's going to be a priority. In his inauguration speech he talked about creating a new clean energy economy and how we are going to double the production of alternative energy in the next three years, modernize more than 75% of federal buildings and improve the energy efficiency of two million American homes.

Not only will this save consumers and tax payers billions on their energy bills but smart investors like you can make incredible profits.

Billion Dollar Green: Profit from the ECO REVOLUTION will provide you with everything you need to know including the names of stocks to own and which ones you need to stay away from.

To get started right now click the link below and read a FREEe xcerpt of Chapter 4: Harnessing the Profit Power of Solar.

Talk to you soon.

Toby Smith

If you look at the website ( you will see an amazing opportunity to become a millionaire for only $27.95. Isn't it amazing?

But in case you are trying to understand how good is this guy in forecasting trends and markets, here are some detailes about his services: ChangeWave Investing and ChangeWave MicroCap.

ChangeWave Investing

A???: -56.75%
C???: -6.17%
E???: -73.38%
F??: -52.47%
L??: -67.86%
P??: -32.37%
S????: -57.79%
S??: -71.52%
Z???: -83.52%

C???: -49.99%

A???: 35.76%
R???: -52.34%

C???: -34.65%
F???: -7.08%
W??: -14.66%

A??: -77.24%
B???: -67.06%
N??: -75.91%
P??: -62.54%
P??: -47.05%

C???: -17.31%
G???: -13.29%
G???: 11.18%
I???: 25.22%
S???: -51.57%

S??: -23.04%
E??: -42.86%
D??: -11.62%
Q??: -8.89%
S??: -57.24%
T??: -22.35%

On average: -37.62%

ChangeWave MicroCrap

Biotech/Medical Technologies
A??: -66.67%
C???: 3.49%
C??: -46.81%
I??: -27.91%
I??: -82.41%
N???: -88.44%
O???: -81.29%
S???: -84.63%

Energy/Clean Tech
A???: -55.98%
C???: -83.20%
E???: -0.72%
O???: -77.39%
U???: -10.84%

Emerging/Breakthrough Technologies
I???: -73.67%
R???: -55.81%
S???: -66.67%

T??: -28.59%

On average -54.56%

What an expert... I am running to buy his book!!!

The (plus or minus) 25% Cash Machine

You may have seen the 25% Cash Machine website already, or you may have received one of many spams from InvestorPlace promoting this service.

Well, I just wanted to have a look at this expert's performance. His name is Bryan Perry and his bio says:
The High-Income & Swing-Trading Expert
Today, most investment advisors are telling their clients to "tone down" their expectations. In the long run, 8%–12% annually is the best one can expect from common stocks they say.
Not true, says Bryan Perry. As editor of The 25% Cash Machine, he's been helping his subscribers double those returns with much less risk than investors typically take.
WOW!!! So let's see how well Mr. Perry is doing at the moment:

A???: -22.75%
A??: -46.60%
A???: -36.65%
A????: -21.59%
B??: -15.04%
C??: -18.40%
C??: -68.13%
E??: -35.83%
F??: -47.56%
G??: 34.53%
H??: -17.57%
H???: -34.09%
I??: -47.24%
T??: 1.19%
P??: -19.77%
K??: -7.92%
K??: -14.44%
M??: -56.75%
Q???: -34.22%
N????: -23.22%
J??: -15.07%
O???: -55.60%
P???: -61.58%
P??: -42.70%
P??: -27.96%
P??: -20.00%
P??: -35.22%
B??: -0.68%
R??: -42.50%
T??: -17.90%
A??: -19.51%
M??: 33.04%
4????????: 14.54%
Average return is -24.95%: plus or minus (sign) exactly the 25% Mr. Perry promises.

Blue Chip Growth Performance

Here is the real Blue Chip Growth performance up to Juanuary 27th 2009...

Conservative Stocks (60%)
Symbol Portfolio GraderBuy DatePerformance
A?? Grade A November 2008 -5.39%
A??? Top 5 Stocks Grade A January 2009 -7.07%
B?? Grade B April 2007 17.03%
C??? Grade B February 2009 -0.80%
C? Grade B August 2006 0.24%
D?? Grade B August 2008 -43.98%
E??? Grade A December 2007 -15.33%
G??? Grade A April 2006 52.34%
G?? Top 5 Stocks Grade A October 2008 -12.55%
M?? Top 5 Stocks Grade A November 2006 41.11%
N?? Grade B October 2008 -44.61%
O?? Grade A April 2008 -24.56%
P?? Grade B November 2008 -17.52%
S?? Grade B May 2008 -39.39%
U?? Grade C September 2008 -41.49%
W?? Top 5 Stocks Grade A October 2008 -21.82%

Moderately Aggressive Stocks (30%)
Symbol Portfolio GraderBuy DatePerformance
A?? Grade B May 2008 -46.10%
C?? Grade C June 2006 -11.54%
E?? Grade B February 2008 -28.29%
F?? Grade A May 2008 -49.18%
F??? Grade A January 2008 -43.95%
H?? Grade B March 2008 -34.39%
M? Grade C April 2008 -39.25%
S?? Top 5 Stocks Grade A December 2008 -0.16%

Aggressive, Powerful, Volatile Stocks (10%)
Symbol Portfolio GraderBuy DatePerformance
A?? Grade B July 2008 -67.64%
A??? Grade A February 2009 -7.71%
G?? Grade B April 2008 -60.44%

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Emerging Growth Performance

You may have received a teaser promoting Louis Navellier Emerging Growth service.
If so, you may ask yourself where you could find true information about Emerging Growth performance.
The answer is: here!

Conservative Stocks (60%)
TickerPortfolio GraderBuy DatePerformanceTop 10
A???Grade A September 2008 -29.55%x
B??Grade B October 2008 -27.38%
B?? Grade A December 2008 25.59%
C???Grade A June 2008 -15.57%
C?? Grade A July 2008 -31.69%x
F???Grade A July 2007 16.82%
F?? Grade A December 2008 16.34%
I???Grade B September 2008 -39.04%
M?? Grade A November 2008 -12.15%x
N?? Grade A January 2009 -16.69%x
P?? Grade A October 2008 -20.42%
P???Grade B April 2008 -22.20%
S??? Grade A February 2008 26.60%x
S??Grade B December 2007 -5.60%
T??? Grade A December 2008 10.09%x
U???Grade C November 2008 -25.57%

ModeratelyAggressiveStocks (30%)
TickerPortfolioGraderBuyDatePerformanceTop 10
A??? GradeA January 2009 -19.21%x
A?? Grade B December 2006 7.58%
C?Grade C July 2007 -22.07%
D?? Grade B September 2007 -50.09%
E?? Grade A December 2008 -0.61%x
F?? Grade B January 2008 -47.40%
S?? Grade A May 2008 -8.83%x
T?? Grade C July 2007 -23.64%
U???Grade A January 2009 -7.04%
W?? Grade B September 2008 -67.61%

Aggressive, Powerful, Volatile Stocks (10%)
TickerPortfolioGraderBuyDatePerformanceTop 10
F??? GradeA September 2008 -53.09%x
G?? Grade B September 2007 -35.37%
S???Grade A October 2008 -30.07%

Louis Navellier and CF

On a hot June 29th 2008 Louis Navellier wrote his July issue of Blue Chip Growth.
One of the new buys (and of course one of the Top 5 stocks) for July was CF Industries (CF).

CF Industries (CF) is a regional agricultural firm that manufactures and markets nitrogenous and phosphate fertilizers. The company operates a network of manufacturing and distribution facilities, primarily in the Midwest. Before it began to trade publicly in 2005, the company had been owned by eight regional agricultural co-ops, including Land O’Lakes, Growmark and CHS.
Fertilizer companies are prospering because farmers need to boost crop yields to meet the global demand for food. CF is no different, benefiting from positive analyst upgrades and trading at less than nine times forecasted earnings. The stock is a great buy below $176.

A few pages later Mr. navellier was writing Buy Below $174.

In any case, he got in at $155.08 and suggested his readers to do the same.
During the first months CF moved sideway and Mr. Navellier appeared on Bloomberg TV to tell he was positive about fertilizers.
In the following issues of Blue Chip Growth he wrote:
August 2008 issue: Top 5 Stocks: #1. Fertilizer giant CF Industries (CF) managed to claw back from the panic selling in early July, and it has the fundamentals we require to shine this earnings season. Demand for CF products remains strong amid the global food crunch, and I expect that to be reflected in a strong quarterly report.
Buy Below $186
September 2008 issue: Top 5 Stocks: #2. Agricultural chemical producer CF Industries (CF) posted the second-biggest earnings surprise of all our Blue Chip Growth stocks this quarter, at a stunning 39.4%. This company’s 2Q profits were more than three times those of 2007! The stock has pulled back a bit recently because of the profit taking affecting all of our commodity stocks, but numbers like that won’t go unrecognized by Wall Street for long. Because of its tremendous earnings performance and revised outlook for the second half of the year, I still think CF is one of the best stocks on our Buy List.
Buy Below $144 (and those who bought it over $160 one month earlier?)
October 2008 issue: Buy Below $138
November 2008 issue: Buy Below $72 (CF already lost over 50% from its top. What was Mr. navellier waiting?)
December 2008 issue: The stocks with the strongest profits remain our fertilizer stocks, which were simply stunning, with Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT) all posting better-than-expected earnings and over 100% sales growth. If you doubted whether our ag picks were worth holding on to, I hope this helped prove that these companies still have a lot of strength.
Buy Below $60.
January 2009 issue: Buy Below $55.
February 2009 issue: SELL CF. On January 20th, when the PDF February issue was saved, CF closed at $45.74.

For Mr. Navellier this trade generated a 70% loss.

What a guru...

Latest Navellier Trades

Two new sells for Louis Navellier's Quantum Growth $5.000/year paying subscribers today.

Bought on January 12th 2009 at $8.61, it closed yesterday at $7.31.
Performance: -15%

Bought on November 3rd 2008 at $21.77, just closed at $26.93.
Performance: +23.7%

And two new sells for Louis Navellier's Global Growth $5.000/year paying subscribers too.

Bought on October 27th 2008 at $44.35, it closed yesterday at $44.90.
Performance: +1.2%

Bought on January 5th 2009 at $44.81, just closed at $36.94.
Performance: -17.5%

A Reader's Comment

I think a Reader's comment is worth more than all my analysis...

Here are my real life results with this bozzo on these stocks...
ATVI: Bought Mar/08, $18.38, now $9.26
CF: Bought Oct/08, $58.07, now $45.73
MON: Bought Mar/08, $105.98, now $76.81
MOS: Bought Apr/08, $140.11, now $34.61
POT: Actually made some $ on this one because it had gone up enough for me to sell 50% a while back.

Louis, you are a beauty! Thanks for the "advice". You were marginally up during the good times, but you are below average in these turbulant times. After about 1 year of trying your approach, I'm slowly moving these positions to my old way of doing things, because at least when I screw up, I'm not still promoting myself based on data that I pull out of my a**!

Monday, January 26, 2009

Louis Navellier and ATVI

Mr. Navellier actually said to sell ATVI after the quarter results, extected the second week of February.
This does not change much my opinion on him sayng "Buy Below $19" in July...

From 43% gain to 32% loss... This is the quick summary of Louis Navellier trade with Activision-Blizzard.

Mr. Navellier bought ATVI at $13.47 on mid-March 2008. He was writing:

Activision (ATVI) is the video game company behind “Tony Hawk’s Underground,” “Doom,” “Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock” and “Call of Duty.”
The company also makes games based on licensed properties from LucasArts (Star Wars), Marvel (Spider-Man and X-Men) and DreamWorks Animation (Shrek). In late 2007, Activision agreed to sell a 52% stake to Vivendi in a deal valued at $9.8 billion.
The company’s latest quarterly earnings rose 87% to $0.86 per share compared with $0.46 per share last year. Activision had raised its earnings forecast twice for the quarter and yet the company still beat analysts’ estimates by 7.5%! Traditionally, the stock has been “recession-proof” in that a large proportion of its customers are young and unaffected by a declining job market.

Buy below $15 (split adjusted)

So Mr. Navellier's subscribers got in with ATVI.

In May 2008 issue of his Blue Chip Growth newsletter Mr. Navellier rose the Buy Below price to $15.5.

Less than a month later ATVI jumped from $14 to $16.

In June 2008 issue Mr. Navellier rose to $18.5 theBuy Below limit (as he always does when prices go up).

Buy Below $19 in July issue, $18 in August.

In September Mr. Navellier wrote:

Activision (ATVI) has been soaring as Americans continue to use video games to escape from their troubles. July video game sales jumped 28%, totalling almost $1.2 billion! Consumers who are looking to cut back on other expenses are opting for video games instead of more costly forms of entertainment. As the manufacturer of some of the most popular video game titles out there, ATVI has been cashing in on this trend.

Buy Below $19.

In October 2008

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) split 2-for-1 on September 8, so I hope you didn’t panic when you saw the stock price cut in half recently! Remember, the first thing you should do when you see this happen unexpectedly is to check recent news because the culprit is almost always a split. As for ATVI, we’ve enjoyed gains of more than 30% in this hot stock since I told you to buy it in April, and I expect even bigger profits once the holiday season pushes video game sales even higher!

ATVI was even #1 in the Top 5 Stocks for October.

#1. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) knows video games aren’t just for teenage boys—nearly 60% of Americans play video games! Fully 40% of gamers are women, and 65% of game players are older than 18. ATVI is at the top of the heap when it comes to video games. With hits like Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft, there’s not a gamer out there who hasn’t played some of this company’s titles. Ask your grandkids about these titles and watch their eyes light up! As the market for video games grows, Activision Blizzard will continue to be a great buy thanks to its high-quality products. Buy Below $20.

What a timely advice... look at the chart. Here, subscribers enjoying the imaginary 30% profit are close to a rude awakening...

Buy Below $15 in November

In December 2008 issue ATVI was againg number 1 of the top 5 stocks:

#1. Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is the video game company behind World of Warcraft, Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and other leading titles. While many other industries are fretting over weak holiday sales, the gaming industry has no such problems ahead. Video game sales jumped 18% to $1.31 billion in October even as economy sputtered, and we can expect strong sales in December as well. ATVI posted a stunning 75% earnings surprise on Nov. 5 and clearly will capitalize on this trend. Buy Below $12.

Buy Below $10 in January and...

SELL ATVI on January 20th at $9.04.

32% loss... What an Expert...

Some new sells for Louis Navellier

Last August Louis Navellier was positive on fertilizers.
Last October he claimes that "in case you've bought into the scare tactics about the commodities bubble, the 20% gain by CF Industries (CF) today and 17% gain in Monsanto (MON) should prove that agricultural stocks aren't dead!"

Now, in his February 2009 Blue Chip Growth issue he sells CF, MOS, MON and POT.

He also sells ATVI and PX.

All of these stocks deserve a dedicated post and you will read more in the next days...

Current China Profit Strategy performance

What China Strategy marketing department won't tell you (they claim they do not have a full track record).

A?? 28.83%
B??? -55.75%
C?? -39.35%
C?? 35.92%
C?? 76.25%
C?? -44.49%
C??? -65.00%
C?? -64.66%
C??? -15.78%
E?? 108.84%
E? -74.16%
E?? -46.59%
G?? 56.03%
L?? -14.77%
M? 21.76%
P??? -40.09%
U?? -71.57%
Y?? 24.54%
Y?? -10.34%
Z?? 39.39%

Robert Hsu's Asia Edge - New Layout, Old Junk

Mr. Robert Hsu's marketing department just renewed the Asia Edge website look and feel.

Unfortunately, Mr. Hsu should have changed his buy and sell criteria, since in the last year he demonstrated he was only able to lose money and his current portfolio is crap.

Mr. Hsu's $3.000/year paying subscribers are currently suffering. Just to let you know in detail (but without infringing any copyright) here is the anonimized version of the Asia Edge Portfolio:

C?? -25.33%
E?? 0.00%
F?? -42.68%
G??? -15.22%
H?? -11.89%
N??? -21.38%
S?? -7.03%
S?? -12.76%
S?? -6.06%
S?? -25.83%

In addition to the current portfolio, I am now going to focus on the latest trade by Mr. Hsu: CEL.

Mr. Hsu bought CEL on November 28th 2007 at $31.34.

New Buy: Cellcom Israel Ltd.
Our new buy this week comes from an economy that we have never invested in before: Israel. Usually Israel makes headlines for all of the political strife happening in the Middle East, so many investors aren't aware that the country has a strong competitive edge in today's information economy. Believe it or not, the tiny country is developing into a high-tech center. Israel is forging ahead technologically and establishing a name for itself in industries like software and generic drugs.
The country also has a highly educated and disciplined workforce. With its tech edge and skilled workers, Israel's GDP is growing at a rate of about 6% per year. Even though it's a small country without much in the way of natural resources, it's using its strengths to get ahead in areas that are critical in today's era of global trade and information exchange.
Our new play on Israel is an established company that started in 1994, but didn't go public until this past February. Cellcom Israel (NYSE:
CEL) is the largest mobile phone operator in Israel. The company provides a variety of services, from talk and text messaging capabilities to advanced cellular content and data transfer. Cellcom also sells handsets and offers landline and roaming services.
A lot has changed in the Israeli mobile industry since the company was founded, but Cellcom has managed to keep up with the rapidly evolving market. In the 13 years since Cellcom first opened its doors for business, the mobile phone has gone from an Israeli luxury item available only to the privileged to a "must-have" for everybody.
And Cellcom has done a good job of providing mobile services for all of the new cell phone owners in Israel. Today, the company provides services to more than 3 million subscribers. That represents 34% market share in its home country!
The company also has a unique home-field advantage -- its deep commitment to Israeli culture enables Cellcom to understand its customers' needs better than foreign competition. Cellcom leverages this strength to increase its subscriber base and customer satisfaction. The company is known for its stellar customer service and strives to make every customer interaction pleasant.

Cellcom's Strong Financials
Early this month, Cellcom reported terrific third-quarter earnings, boosted by cost cuts and higher revenue from data and content services. Net income doubled (increasing 105%) to $67 million or 68 cents per share from $33 million or 34 cents one year earlier. Meanwhile, total revenue increased a healthy 7% to $392 million.
The company's subscriber base grew by 57,000 to 3.02 million people at the end of September. Its number of 3G subscribers also climbed, reaching approximately 281,000 -- up an impressive 33% from the previous quarter. Cellcom's customer base is now larger than that of its major rival, Partner Communications, which has only 2.8 million subscribers.
Cellcom also said it plans to pay a dividend of 67 cents per share or a total of $65 million on December 3. Given Israel's tame inflation rate and appreciating currency, I believe Cellcom's strong earnings growth will continue.
I also like CEL because it has rallied sharply during the recent market correction. This is a sign of strong momentum, and I believe this strength will continue thanks to its cheap valuation (its P/E ratio is only 14!) and an attractive 8.8% dividend. I want you to buy CEL under $35. I expect it to hit $46 in the next four to six months, giving us profits of 30% or more.

Ready for the profit of 30% or more? Here it is:

CEL moved quite sideway until July 2008 when it also reached $36.

Mr. Hsu was writing at that time: Buy under $35

Even in his June 24th 2008 conference call with his paying subscribers, Mr. Hsu explained that CEL was in the Top 5 Stocks of his Asia Edge and China Profit portfolios.

Far from setting a stop and far from understanding anything at all in the 2008 crisis, Mr. Hsu waited until January 21st 2009 and a close price of $20.99 before telling his poor subscribers to sell.

This turned out to be another great lesson about how to go from an imaginary profit of 15% to a realized loss of 33%. Didn't Mr. Hsu say "profit of 30% or more"?

Well done, Mr. Hsu.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Navellier's latest trades

A few closed trades for Mr. Louis Navellier today. Trades that will not make his $5.000/year Quantum and Global Growth paying subscribers very happy.
Let's start with Global Growth. The closed trades are BLX, TMX and TNE.


BLX was bought on December 29th 2008 at $12.97
December 29th 2008
Among our new buys, Panama's Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones (BLX) specializes in financing foreign trade for some [...].
BLX is a great buy because it is a benchmark for Latin American growth. [...] The Panama Canal widening project, the largest infrastructure project in Latin America (at a cost of $5.2 billion) is boosting Panama's economy, and it is especially good for Banco Latinoamericano. And as the rest of South America begins to gear up in the first half of 2009, BLX will have a large role in financing the growth of the region.

Buy Below $13.95

January 5th 2009: buy below $15.62

January 12th 2009: buy below $12.91

January 20th 2009: This week I recommend selling Panama's Banco Latinoamericano de Exportaciones (BLX). Price: $9.52

Performance on BLX: -26.5%


TMX was bought on January 5th 2009 at $20.93 (as you can see here Mr. Navellier already lost 32% with TMX between August 11th and November 24, when he sold at $17.17 - yes, he sold in November at $17.17 and bought back in January at $20.93...)

January 5th
Another great Mexican stock I want you to buy is Telefonos de Mexico (TMX). Also known as Telmex, this company is Mexico's #1 provider of fixed-line telecom services, with more than 18 million lines in service. The company also provides cable TV, voice, data, and Internet access services to customers in other countries in Central and South America through subsidiaries in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru. Telmex has become increasingly dominant in Brazil, which is now its biggest market. Carso Global Telecom, a holding company controlled by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, owns a 71% voting stake. Mr. Slim has announced that he plans to invest nearly $950 million this year, upgrading Telmex's facilities in Mexico and Latin America. Telmex is effectively a legal monopoly.
Buy below $22.26

January 12th: Buy below $20.10

January 20th: sell TMX. Price: $17.29.

Performance on TMX: -17% (and another -17% for selling it in November and uying back in January)


TNE was also bought on January 5th 2009 at $14.33

January 5th
Our third buy is Brazil's Tele Norte Leste Participacoes (TNE). Tele Norte markets its services [...]. The company recently received approval to acquire Brasil Telecom, the country's #3 fixed-line telephone company. That acquisition would create a fixed-line company capable of competing against leading foreign players, especially Spain's Telefonica SA and Mexico's America Movil.
Please Note: The company is in the midst of a secondary stock offering, so the stock may not appreciate significantly until this secondary offering is completed. However, this stock has explosive growth potential, and I do not want you to be left out of the profits once it surges. We will move in now, but we will have to be a bit more patient with TNE. I will keep you posted on this stock as news unfolds.

January 12th: buy below $13.59

January 20th: sell TNE. Price: $11.23

Performance on TNE: -21%

This week we also have two Quantum Growth sells: CMP and IIIN.
In his previous CMP trade Mr. Navellier bought this stock on November 17th at $54.21 and sold it one week later at $51.95 for a quick, small 4% loss.
Then he waited until January 5th to buy it again at $63.12, for a missed profit of 21%.
January 5th
Compass Minerals International (CMP) is hoping for snow this winter since it’s one of the largest salt producers in North America. The company’s salt products include rock, evaporated and solar salt and are used for applications such as water softening, road deicing and food preparation. Compass Minerals operates through [...].
This winter is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, so the demand and price of road salt has risen as the temperature plummets. In fact, the high cost of road salt is hurting many municipalities. [...]. This is a big windfall for Compass Minerals and the stock is an excellent buy.
Buy below $67.40
January 12th: Buy below $63.03
January 20th: I have two sells this week. First, Compass Minerals (CMP) was stopped out. Price: $46.51.
Performance: -26% (in addition to 4% loss and 21% missed profit makes a compound loss of 43%)
This year Mr. Navellier already traded IIIN. The first time was between October 20th and 27th (17% loss).
On December 22nd Mr. Navellier decided that it was time to buy IIIN once more, at $9.75.
Insteel Industries (IIIN) manufactures welded wire reinforcement[...]
The company recently announced that it expects to report a fiscal first-quarter loss because of sharply lower orders. Insteel said orders have declined at “severely depressed levels” during the three-month period ending December 27 because of tighter credit markets, a weaker economic outlook and inventory de-stocking by customers. In the first two months of the quarter shipments dropped 39%, and plants operated at reduced levels that will continue for the remainder of the quarter. [so, why to buy now?]
Looking beyond the current quarter, Insteel’s CEO said, “Margins are to recover during the second half of fiscal 2009 following the actions we have taken to reduce operating costs and as selling prices and raw material costs stabilize.” The CEO added that order levels are expected to rebound “as the realignment of customer inventories is completed and demand for our products begins to reflect the actual underlying rates of consumption.” He also stressed that a proposed federal economic stimulus package by President-elect Obama that calls for huge infrastructure spending “should favorably impact demand for concrete reinforcing products, although the timing and magnitude remain uncertain.”
Insteel Industries and other specialty steel stocks are grossly undervalued. The stock is a good buy.
Buy below $10.43
December 29th: Buy below $11.47
January 5th
Speaking of earnings, Insteel Industries (IIIN) will report its fourth-quarter earnings next Tuesday, January 13. The consensus on Wall Street is that Insteel will report a loss of 26 cents per share compared with a gain of 23 cents per share last year; however, I’m very optimistic that the company will beat expectations.
Buy below $12.93
January 12th
Insteel Industries (IIIN) reports its earnings before the opening bell tomorrow. The company has already said that it expects to report a loss due to lower orders. The current consensus on Wall Street is for an earnings loss of 23 cents a share. Still, I like this stock, and I think it will benefit from Washington's higher spending on infrastructure. Insteel is a very good buy.
Buy below $11.66
January 20th
I also want you to sell Insteel Industries (IIIN). Insteel's earnings report beat the Street, but I was looking for better guidance so now is our time to exit the position.
Price: $8.65
Performance: turned a potential 25% gain (IIN was $12.20) to an 11% loss.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Robert Hsu and CEA

On October 15th Mr. Robert Hsu wrote to his $3.000/year AsiaPacificEdge subscribers:

New Buy: China Eastern Airlines
I want to recommend China Eastern Airlines (NYSE:
CEA), one of the nation's largest airline companies.

Positive Profit Outlook
Last year, China Southern made a return to profits following a poor performance in 2006. Revenues rose 13% to 42.5 billion yuan from 37.6 billion yuan in 2006, while operating profits were 244 million yuan, a sharp turnaround from 3.4 billion yuan loss a year ago.
Contributing to these profits was the airline's stronger ticket sales and strong growth in air travel demand in 2007. CEA's passenger numbers climbed 14% to 57.2 million from 50.3 million in 2006, enabling the airline to fill 74% of its seats. In addition, the strengthening Chinese yuan has reduced the repatriated value of the airlines' dollar-denominated fuel bills and debt.
I expect these factors to continue to boost CEA's profitability, and going forward, I look for a decrease fuel costs to also add to its bottom line. Crude oil prices have recently dropped more than 40% from its record high in early July. And since fuel accounts for about 40% of costs to Chinese air carriers, higher fuel surcharges also allow CEA to pass more of its fuel costs on to passengers.

Despite strong earnings momentum, the stock was irrationally sold off because of soaring fuel prices earlier this year. I believe the stock now has the opportunity to turnaround, thanks to all of the reasons we've just talked about. I want you to buy CEA under $15. I expect the stock to hit $30 in about six to eight months, which would give us profits of 100% from today's levels.

Buy price was $13.57.

CEA went down until $8.50 and then started to get up again. And here is what Mr. Robert Hsu was writing:
  • October 22nd: Buy CEA under $15.
  • October 29th: China Eastern Airlines (NYSE: CEA) reported that it experienced a record 2.33 billion yuan, or $355 million, loss for January to September. The company said that the losses were due to falling passenger numbers (especially during the Olympics) and dropping fuel prices. CEA predicts a loss for full-year 2008. But I expect air traffic to pick up near year-end. So I recommend that you continue to buy CEA under $15. [remember the Positive Profit Outlook above?]
  • November 5th: Buy CEA under $15.
  • November 12th: Buy CEA under $15.
  • November 19th: Hold CEA
  • November 26th: Hold CEA
  • December 1st: I recommend that you hold your shares of China Eastern Airlines
  • December 3rd: Continue to hold CEA for now.
  • December 10th: Continue to hold your CEA position.
  • December 11th: I recommend you to start buying CEA again under $15.
  • December 17th: Buy CEA under $15.
  • December 17th: Buy CEA on dips under $15.
  • December 31st: Sell China Eastern
    In mid-October, I recommended China Eastern Airlines (NYSE:
    CEA) as a way to take advantage of the growth in China's airlines as well as the support of the Chinese government. I recommended CEA, in particular, because the company is the largest airline in China with it accounting for approximately 21% of total commercial air traffic in China in 2007.
    Well, after China Eastern announce in early December that the Chinese government would inject 3 billion yuan ($437 million) into CEA's parent company, shares jumped nicely higher. Right now, we have a 12% gain.
    Now, while we profited nicely from the Chinese government's support, I don't think there is much more upside to come for CEA shares. The company itself is poorly managed, and even though CEA has improved its flight experience, there are few other positives to keep the stock moving up. So, I recommend we sell CEA for a 12% gain.

12% gain? Wasn't he talking about hitting $30 in about six to eight months, which would give us profits of 100% from today's levels?

Saturday, January 3, 2009

An Interesting Web Site

While I am preparing new content for you, please have a look at this web site:
updated link:

It seems there are many upset subscribers. It is going to be a bad time for Louis...