Friday, December 26, 2008

October 13th 2008 - This is a good day to buy

Talking about MON, USB, WFC, WDC, RIMM, AAPL... you can see how well they did since october 13th...

For Louis Navellier it was a good day to buy with S&P500 at 1003 (now at 868).

Quantum Crap

I got another marketing spam from our friend Louis a few days ago

Thursday, December 25

Palm Beach, Florida 10:03AM EST

Our success has been your opportunity, my dear colleague…

…and tonight that opportunity must end.

Our top Quantum Growth stocks thrashed the market in 2008, so I’ve slashed the price of Quantum Growth in half, given an unprecedented 100% money-back guarantee—and restricted the offer to 1,000 Qualified Investors like you.

I couldn't read anything more of this crap.

I just want to remind you how Quantum Growth slashed the market.

  1. January 2008: -4.09%
  2. February 2008: -0.07%
  3. March 2008: -3.57%
  4. April 2008: -3.54%
  5. May 2008: 4.48%
  6. June 2008: -0.55%
  7. July 2008: -2.35%
  8. August 2008: -9.03%
  9. September 2008: -14.20%
  10. October 2008: to be summarized
  11. November 2008: -12.11%
  12. December 2008: in progress - update soon

I will post the full year performance next week for Quantum Growth and Global Growth, compared to the S&P500. And I will forward it to Bloomberg, CNN Money and other Financial websites.

I hate this crap.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Ready to buy FMCN?

Are you ready to buy FMCN?
Mr. Robert Hsu just wrote to his China Profit Strategy to sell FMCN. According to Mr. Hsu's performance in 2008 it could be time to invest in this company.
Let's analyze first this latest masterpiece Mr. Hsu just provided us.
Once more, Mr. Hsu was able to turn a 365% gain into a 35% loss (in the very best case). Here's how.
Mr. Hsu suggested to buy FMCN on November 15th 2005 at $13.95.
In October 2007 FMCN was up 360%, 15 times more than the S&P500, that was up only 22%.
As you see in the chart there has been a long up-trend (blue line) going on for almost 2 years.
Any investor should have set a stop at around $45 (the little circle in the chart). The trend ended, the support was broken and the savvy investor closed his position with a 200% gain ($14 to $45 circa).
Mr. Hsu didn't close anything.

Mr. Hsu was writing between October and November 2007:

  • October 4th 2007: Focus Media (NASDAQ: FMCN) delivered another stellar second quarter. Net income soared 126% to $37.7 million, or 32 cents a share, from $16.7 million in the same period a year ago, while revenue also surged 126% to $113.3 million from $50.1 last year. All three lines of its business were very strong: digital out-of-home advertising revenue jumped 64% to $76.9 million, mobile handset advertising revenue grew 254% to $10.9 million and Internet advertising revenue from its recent acquisition of Allyes was $25.2 million.
    Looking ahead, the company expects its third quarter revenue to be $132 million to $135 million and net income to be between $52 million and $54 million, or 41 cents to 43 cents per share. It also raised its revenue guidance for 2007 to a range of $440 million to $450 million, up significantly from its previous estimate of $390 million to $400 million.
    During the conference call, Focus Media confirmed that it bought iResearch Consulting Group, a top and professional market researcher in China, for $10 million. iResearch will be under independent operation in the future. The acquisition will enable Focus Media to be well informed of website information and the surfing habits of Internet users in China. I believe the deal will help Focus Media to better see the innovation trends of China's booming Internet industry and develop its market-winning strategy to continue to drive its strong growth.
    Lastly, Focus Media announced that it received a letter from NASDAQ Listing Qualifications stating that the company had regained compliance requirements for continued listing on The NASDAQ Global Market. This was the last step to clearing up some of the filing issues that the company has had, and is a buying signal for us. Buy FMCN under $60.
  • November 1st 2007: Focus Media (NASDAQ: FMCN) plans to sell 13.7 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) to raise an estimated $872 million. The company will offer 5 million shares to finance acquisitions and general corporate expenses, while existing shareholders will sell 8.7 million shares. This means an increased ability to expand for the company and is a long term positive for our holding. Buy FMCN under $60.
  • November 8th 2007: Focus Media (NASDAQ: FMCN) sold 13.7 million American Depositary Shares at $64.75 per share in its secondary offering yesterday. The advertising company has raised about $324 million so far, making it ready for another major acquisition.
    Focus Media is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on November 19, after the market closes. I expect the company to report triple-digit revenue growth once again. Watch FMCN and buy it on dips under $60.
  • November 29th 2007: Focus Media (NASDAQ: FMCN) delivered another terrific third quarter last week. Net income jumped 73% year-over-year and 24% quarter-over-quarter to $46.6 million or 37 cents. Meanwhile, total revenues climbed an impressive 150% from a year ago and 34% from the second quarter to $151.4 million.
    All three parts of the company's businesses reported strong growth during the quarter. Digital out-of-home advertising revenue increased 66% to $94.7 million, mobile handset advertising revenue grew a staggering 299% from last year to $14.0 million, and Internet advertising revenue increased 69% to $42.5 million.
    Looking ahead, the management team expects fourth-quarter earnings to be $62 million–$64 million or 48 cents–50 cents per ADS on revenue of $160 million–$170 million. I believe the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the strong demand growth in China's advertising market in 2008. Continue to buy FMCN under $60.

After watching FMCN going down for 1 year (red line in chart is a beautiful down-trend) Mr. Hsu decided that it is time to sell it:

We first invested in Focus Media (NASDAQ: FMCN) back in November 2005. At that time, the company had recently gone public, and was growing rapidly by installing advertising screens in buildings, shopping malls and supermarkets across China. In all my visits to China, I've always been thoroughly impressed with the company's advertising screens and the reactions they received from people.
Unfortunately, in the past year, the company has fallen on hard times, as the financial crisis and global economic slowdown pulled down companies' shares across the board. In addition, Focus Media is suffering from competitors who mimic Focus Media's video billboard strategy, as well as the fact that advertising budgets have been cut across the globe.
In light of these recent developments, I think it is now time to sell Focus Media. The stock has recently rallied 30% off its lows, and I think we should use this rally to sell our shares. Sell FMCN.

The close price yesterday was $9.20 and the loss for Mr. Hsu is 34%.

Mr. Hsu provided another lesson about how to turn a 360% gain ($14 to $65) into a 34% loss.

A final word about those subscribers that followed him on November 2007 and bought FMCN at $60.

They lost 84%!!!

What's next

Currently FMCN is positioned as follow among its industry peers:

Best 40% as P/E

Best 20% as ROA and ROI

Best 20% as Quick and Current Ratio

Best 20% as OM, EBITDA and Profit Margin

Best 20% as Sales Growth

Add the fact that Mr. Hsu is selling and it may really be the right time to buy...

UPDATE November 19th, market close

As I said... yesterday Mr. Hsu was saying "Sell FMCN" and today FMCN gained over 19%... what a genius!!!

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Latest Global and Quantum Trades

Welcome to this new post. It is Tuesday and it is time to analyze the latest trades closed by Louis Navellier yesterday.
As every Monday Louis Navellier just sent his weekly issue of $5.000/year Global Growth and Quantum Growth to his subscrivers.
This week we have 3 sells for Global Growth and 4 sells for Quantum Growth. The situation is not so bad, compared to other time, but 2008 is a very bad yar for Mr. Navellier and even $5.000 worse for his subscribers.
Global Growth
This week, I recommend selling Brazil's CFPL Energia (CPL), Bermuda's Covidien (COV) and China's Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF). Covidien has lagged behind the market for several weeks, while CPL and SOLF have pretty much moved sideways since we bought them and should be traded in for better stocks.
CPL was added to the Global Growth portfolio on November 24th 2008 at $43.40.
Yesterday it closed at $40.78 for a very small loss of around 6%.

COV entered the Global Growth portfolio on July 21st 2008 when it was trading at $49.38 (its highest price ever). After a last small jump to $55 it started going down and it just closed at $34.60 for a 29.9% loss.

You may remember what Mr. Navellier said about SOLF. SOLF was trading at $18 when Mr. Navellier predicted a double in the next 14 days... He added SOLF to his portfolio on December 1st 2008 at $4.70 and it just closed at $4.74 for a 0.something% gain.

Quantum Growth
We are selling four stocks this week. Pain Therapeutics (PTIE) and True Religion Apparel (TRLG) were stopped out. Also, LDK Solar (LDK) and Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) no longer qualify to be Quantum stocks.

PTIE was bought on November 24th at $12.17 and it just closed at $12.03 for a 0.something% loss.

TRLG was bought on November 24th at $11.48 and just closed at $10.60 for a small 5% loss.

LDK was also bought on November 24th at $12.17. It just closed at $12.03 for a 1% loss.

TTWO was added to the Quantum Growth portfolio on September 29th at $15.43. It closed at $11.56 for a 25% loss.

The 3 Global Growth trades generated an average loss of around 11%
The 4 Quantum Growth trades generated an average loss of around 8%

Friday, December 12, 2008

No Surprise Over Nokia

I just received my weekly What's Working on Wall Street Now newsletter from Louis Navellier.

He writes: Nokia Corp. (NOK) F Strong Sell

Then I went through my old mail archive and I found many spams from Navellier dated mid June 2008 whose content sounds like:

Let me give you another example. I want you to see that our success in beating the market by a 6-to-1 margin is no mere theory. It works in real time. Just look now at Nokia.
No Surprise Over Nokia
Nokia also reported last week, and the report was fantastic: profit up 39%, operating margin up 14%, year over year.
Nokia is one of fewer than 2% of all stocks that earn my top grade.
Over the next 6-9 months, you can count on Nokia beating the market by a 6-to-1 margin.

Here is how NOK (blue) beated the S&P500 (red)

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

ASIA sold

Finally, the day to sell ASIA has come for Robert Hsu's $3.000/year Asia Edge subscribers.

It was July 30th when Mr. Hsu wrote:

New Recommendation: AsiaInfo Holdings

AsiaInfo (NASDAQ: ASIA) is a leading provider of high-quality telecom software solutions and IT security products and services in China. The company was founded in 1993, and was actually the first Chinese technology company to list on NASDAQ in 2000.


I think it will be very successful in doing this -- the company already has a strong financial track record, and with this opportunity to provide the Chinese telecom industry with its superior services, I think that AsiaInfo will perform well.


I believe AsiaInfo will continue to grow alongside the rapidly evolving telecom industry in China. Though the global stock markets have been performing badly this year, ASIA has gained 29% since the beginning of the year. I think its excellent earnings and strong growth potentials could send the stock even higher in the coming months.
I want you to buy ASIA under $15. I'm targeting $20 in the next six to eight months, which would give us a nice 33% gain.

Buy price was $13.48 (highest price in the last year).

In the following weeks Mr. Hsu continued to push ASIA:
  • August 6th: Continue to buy ASIA under $15.
  • August 13th: Continue to buy ASIA under $15.
  • August 20th: Continue to buy ASIA under $15.
  • August 27th: I want you to continue to buy ASIA under $15.
  • September 3rd: Continue to buy ASIA under $15.
  • September 10th: buy under $15.
  • September 17th: Buy ASIA under $15.
  • September 24th: buy under $15.
  • October 1st: buy under $15.
  • October 8th: AsiaInfo Holdings (NASDAQ: ASIA) shares have taken a huge hit recently, falling over 40% since September. We originally bought the stock as a way to profit from the telecom restructuring in China, but it has sold off sharply with the global markets. I think going forward, though, the stock has a good chance of bouncing during the upcoming rally. So I recommend that we wait for ASIA to bounce, and then sell it into the market rally. Hold ASIA.
  • Next weeks it was always hold... I want you to continue to hold the stock and sell ASIA above $12.50.

And finally:

ASIA went to $12.50. Mr. Hsu wrote yesterday:

The time has come to sell AsiaInfo Holdings (NASDAQ: ASIA).
As you know, I first recommended this Chinese technology company back in July, as a way to take advantage of the major restructuring among Chinese telecoms. While the AsiaInfo bounced nicely following my recommendation, it sold off this fall with the rest of the global markets.
After experiencing nearly a 40% decline since September, I placed AsiaInfo on hold in early October and told you that we would likely sell the stock into a bounce later in the year. And on November 5 after the company reported decent third-quarter results, I recommended placing a limit order on the stock to sell it above $12.50.
Well, during today's market rally -- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained more than 8% -- AsiaInfo jumped nearly 4% and tripped our $12.50 limit order. That's why I want you to sell ASIA if you haven't already done so. And I'll have more details in this Wednesday's Asia Edge.

A very modest loss of only 7% for Mr. Hsu. One of his best performance of 2008 (at least compared to CTRP, SOHU, QCOM, FMCN, DRYS and others).


Monday, December 8, 2008

Finally some profitable trades...

It was a long time, but finally Mr. Navellier was able to close some profitable trades for his $5.000/year Global and Quantum Growth paying subscribers.

Here are the trades, very quickly:

Quantum Growth
  • EMS: buy date was November 24th, buy price was $35.53, close price today was $31.87, loss is 10%
  • VDSI: buy date was November 24th, buy price was $10.22, close price today was $9.85, loss is 3%
Global Growth
  • CIG: buy date was October 20th, buy price was $16.62, close price today was $14.55, loss is 12%
  • FDP: buy date was November 24th, buy price was $22.95, close price today was $23.44, profit is 2%
  • PWRD: buy date was November 24th, buy price was $16.20, close price today was $17.97, profit is almost 11%
Congratulations to Mr. Navellier!!!

5 trades closed by Louis Navellier

Our Five Sells For December
Since our Emerging Growth requirements are very strict, this month we’re going to pare down our Buy List by selling five stocks that have been downgraded in PortfolioGrader. I’d like you to sell Darling International (DAR), Dolby Laboratories (DLB), Enersys (ENS), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and W&T Offshore (WTI).

Let's start from DAR. First of all you can check what Mr. Navellier was writing about DAR here.
DAR entered the Emerging Growth portfolio on August 2007 at $8.03.

Between June and July 2008 DAR went over $16 for an imaginary 100% profit. As he did many other times, Mr. Navellier did not sell at $16, nor at $12, not even at $8 (at least to get his money back).
He waited until December 8th 2008, with DAR closing at $3.80, before telling his subscribers to sell.
From $8.03 to $3.80 is more than 50% loss. From 100% profit to 50% loss. Nice trade Louis.
But let's see what Mr. Navellier was writing around June/July.

May 2008 issue: DAR was trading at $15.42 and buy below was $17
June 2008 issue: DAR was trading at $14.59 and buy below was $16
July 2008 issue: Just look at some of the big returns we’ve enjoyed this year, like Darling International (DAR), up 47% since January 1st. DAR was trading at $16.67 and buy below was $18

If somebody followed Mr. Navellier's advice and bought at $16 then the loss is over 75%. Well done.

Time to move on to DLB now.

DLB was bought on December 2007 at $50.24 (its highest price ever was $53.63 - only 6% far).

Nothing special to say. From its highest price ever, DLB started to decline and it never stopped until today's $28.32, giving Mr. Navellier's subscribers a 43% loss.

Next is ENS. ENS was even used by Navellier's marketing department in many spams. You can quickly check here for some of them.
ENS was bought on July 2008 at $33.02. It just closed at $9.71 for a remarkable 70% loss.

PXD started its downtrend in July 2008 and Mr. Navellier decided to buy it in August 2008 at $60.15. He was writing: Now, as I’ve said, going forward I’ll only be adding “Super A-rated” stocks to our Buy List that have at least 25% sales growth and at least 50% earnings growth. That means we’ll continuously pinpoint the fastest-moving stocks in the sweet spot of their earnings cycle. This month I’m adding three such qualifying stocks to our Buy List: Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) [...]

This super-A stock just closed at $17.00 for over 70% loss.

And, finally, there is WTI, about which you can read here.
WTI's highest price was in June 2008 and Mr. Navellier suggested to buy it in his June 2008 issue. Buy price for him was $54.30.

Also in this case, the cart for couold be used to explain what a downtrend is. I have no words to explain what I think about an expert that does not get rid of such a dog until he has lost 78% (today's close price is $11.90).

Just to recap:
  1. DAR: around -50%
  2. DLB: around -43%
  3. ENS: around -70%
  4. PXD: around -70%
  5. WTI: around -78%
Average loss: around 62%

Friday, December 5, 2008

Louis Navellier and XTLB

This is the worst trade I have ever seen in my short career.

Mr. Navellier told his $5.000/year Global Growth subscribers to buy XTLB on August 11th 2008.

Israel's XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB) is a biopharmaceutical company that [...].
The stock is a good buy but it is thinly traded. Please place limit orders 10 cents above the previous closing price. Otherwise, you could inadvertently send it soaring, hurting yourself and other investors.

Close price that day was $3.70.

Before looking at what Mr. navellier was saying about XTLB the following weeks, I would like to bring to your attention some figures about the company performance.

In 2006 XTLB had assets for $26.9 mil. and lost $15.1 mil. That make a return on assets of -56%.

In 2007 XTLB had assets for $14.1 mil. and lost $24.9 mil. That makes a return on assets of -176.60%.

For the first 6 months of 2008 the assets were $9.1 mil. and the loss was $7.1 for a -78% ROA.

Having said that, if you had $5.000 would you:
  1. Buy stocks of XTLB?
  2. Go to Las Vegas and play Slot Machines?
  3. Subscribe to Global Growth for 1 year?

Mr. Navellier decided you should have bought XTLB.

August 18th: buy below $4.28

August 25th: Newcomers to the list fared particularly well. XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB), which I told you to buy just two weeks ago, finished the week up almost 9%. Buy below $4.85

September 2nd: [...] don't think our portfolio is one-dimensional–one of our recent health care buys, XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB), jumped almost 10% last week, giving us a total return of almost 22% since I recommended this stock on August 11! [...] Buy below $5.16

September 8th: Just look at XTLB up nearly 20% in less than a month! [...] Top Three Stocks [...] and Israel's XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB) moves up to the #3 spot. XTLB has posted gains of almost 20% in less than a month! Buy below $4.74

September 15th: buy below $4.11

September 22nd: buy below $4.14

September 29th: buy below $3.79

October 6th: buy below $3.42

October 13th: buy below $2.65

October 20th: buy below $3.05

October 27th: buy below $2.90

November 3rd: buy below $3.00

November 10th: buy below $3.06

November 17th: buy below $3.00

November 24th: I'll get to the details in just a bit, but while we're on the subject of our Buy List, we did have one unfortunate surprise last week. On Tuesday, XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB) saw its stock price drop from $2.10 to 13 cents after the company announced that its diabetic pain treatment drug failed crucial tests. In this week's issue, I'll tell you what to do now with this stock.

This week, I recommend selling [...] and Israel's XTL Biopharmaceuticals (XTLB). I referenced earlier in the issue that XTLB fell 94% on Tuesday after the company said its diabetic-pain treatment missed its primary and secondary benchmarks in a clinical trial. In my blog, I initially said to wait to hear from the CEO before rushing to sell. Well, it's been almost a week now, and we haven't heard a thing. With the failure of XTLB's lead candidate, the company is now too far behind to have any real chance of generating revenue, so this leaves us no choice but to sell shares now for a year-end tax loss.

Sell price: around 8 cents.

Loss: 97.8% (NEW RECORD!!!)

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

This guy has no restraint...

It is incredible what Louis Navellier is able to write in his newsletters.

From Blue Chip Growth:

our Buy List is up more than 10% from the latest "retest" of the market's lows on November 20, led by leaders like F**** (F??), up 40%, G***** (G??), up 30%, and F**** S**** (F???), up 26%.

F?? is currently down 48.02% since bought
G?? is currently down 67.09% since bought
F??? is currently down 56.22% since bought

From Emerging Growth:

Our big winners include W***** P******** (W??), S******* (S???), U**** O********* (U???), E****** (E??) and A****** (A??), which are ALL up by more than 20% since the retest!

W?? is currently down 66.14% since bought
S??? is currently down 20.62% since bought
U??? is currently down 25.34% since bought
E?? is currently down 78.56% since bought
A?? is currently down 7.39% since bought

Really Big Winners...

A couple of Quantum failures...

As every Monday, Louis Navellier sent his $5.000/year Quantum Growth paying subscribers detailed instruction about FSYS and NCS.

Both of these stocks were bought only 2 weeks ago, so we cannot enjoy Navellier's typical rollercoaster ride (with usual sell at the bottom...).

Very quickly, here is NCS.

It was bought on November 17th at $14.73 and sold yesterday at $12.93 (close prices) for a 12% loss in two weeks (one of these 2 weeks was one of the most profitable in Wall Street history).

FSYS, on which Mr. Navellier spammed so much, was also bought on November 17th at around $32.75 and sold at around $27.90 for a 14% loss.

In the same two weeks during which Mr. Navellier realized losses of 12% and 14% the S&P500 lost 4% (from 850.75 to 816.21). Once more Mr. Navellier outperformed the market (in absolute values) by 3-to-1.

Quick note: Portfolio Grader Pro scores NCS as a BUY and FSYS as a STRONG BUY.

Louis Navellier and FRO

Louis Navellier just decided to sell FRO. In the latest issue of his $5.000/year Global Growth newsletter he wrote his subscribers to sell FRO.

First of all, let's read together what Mr. Navellier is able to invent, then we will quickly analyze his strategy on this trade.


This week, I recommend selling Bermuda's Frontline (FRO). We're selling Frontline on a rally, as the stock rose 11.4% last week after the company reported net income of $107.8 million and earnings of $1.39 per share for the third quarter of 2008. Frontline also announced net income of $647.2 million for the first nine months of 2008, equivalent to earnings per share of $8.53. Today cut into some of last week's gains, but I want you to sell on this strong report.

Let's see the chart for the past 5 days now:

Louis, Louis, Louis... what the hell are you saying? Do you really think your subscribers are so stupit to believe to be selling in a rally?

On November 26th FRO jumped from $29.45 to $33.01 (12%) but on November 28th it went down to $29.54 and yesterday down again to $25.10 (lowest close price in more than 1 year).

Where the hell is the rally?

But let's start from the beginning. Global Growth $5.000/year paying subscribers bought FRO on March 3rd 2008. Mr. Navellier was writing:

Company: Frontline Ltd. (FRO)
Country: Norway
Industry: Marine Shipping
Buy Below: $46.38

Price was $44.28.

FRO went up preatty well until May 2008. Then it slowed down its trend, although it went up again until $72 in June 2008.

It would have been a good idea to set a stop here, let's say at around $65 and cash a 45% gain in less than 4 months.

But Mr. N does not like stop losses. In fact he was writing:

June 23rd 2008: buy below $74.54 (never reached by FRO)

June 30th 2008: buy below $72.48 (never reached by FRO)

Somebody may have had the insane idea to follow this crazy advice and buy FRO at around $72.

As you can see in the chart, from July 2008 the game is over and FRO started to nosedive until current $25.10 (what Navellier calls a rally).

In the best case Global Growth $5.000/paying subscribers once more witnessed navellier's magic to turn a 50% imaginary profit to a 43% realized loss.

Those unlucky and trustful readers who bought at $72 (as the icon of growth investing suggested) brought home a 65% loss.


PS: just a quick note: FRO is currently a BUY in Navellier's Portfolio Grader Pro...

Monday, December 1, 2008

Louis Navellier - Again...

Another spam from Navellier:

I wanted to be sure you knew:
At 11:59 p.m. tonight, the price of Emerging Growth automatically doubles. If you wish to join us tomorrow, it will cost you twice as much.
Act now and receive 3—yes 3 FREE timely investment research reports that create an ironclad money machine for you in 2009.
Plus, you snag Emerging Growth at our never-before-offered GIVEAWAY discount, saving you HALF-OFF—all if you act now.
If Not Now—When?
Small stocks are seeing BIG pops right now. Buying panic has gripped the innovators that populate the Emerging Growth Buy List. Just look at this action in the past few days:
“The stocks on the [Emerging Growth Buy List] provide the seeds for nearly all of the big winners of the future!”-Glenn M., Freemont , CA

  • AZZ, UP 35%
  • Darling International, UP 37%
  • Enersys, UP 39%
  • Flowserve, UP 28%
  • Fuel Systems, UP 30%
  • Terra Industries, UP 29%

Just to be precise, here is the actual performance of the above stocks:
  • AZZ is currently up 13.22%
  • DAR is currently down 37.73%
  • ENS is currently down 74.17%
  • FLS is currently down 46%
  • FSYS is currently down 33.26%
  • TRA is currently down 42.13%

If these are the best stocks in Navellier's portfolio...

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Finally back

Dear readers,

it has been a very tough month for me. Very busy at work and very busy for an MBA degree I just got last week.

Now I am back and I decided to dedicate part of this week-end to a quick analysis of Louis Navellier's performance for the month of November 2008.

Let's start from the $5.000/year Global Growth performance.

Louis Navellier closed 22 trades this month and none of them was profitable. Average loss for all 22 trades is almost 40%.

In the table hereafter you can see a quick summary of the trades. In addition to the amazing 97.84% loss with XTLB you can see there half of the trades generated losses of more than 40%.

Moving to the $5.000/year Quantum Growth service we can notice that the 13 trades generated an average loss of 12%. There have been 1 profitable trade (6.32%) and a break-even. The other 11 trades were crap.

It is interesting to notice that buying when Mr. Navellier said "Sell" would have generated a 4.28% average profit up to last Friday...

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Emerging Marketing

Here is latest Louis Navellier's spam.

AZZ is actually up 35% in four days and since bought is up... 10.59%.

Thanks to the 45% up, URBN is now down 12.28%.

EnerSys was up 39% to the current amazing 73.35% loss.

WLL gained 42% and is currently down 58.42%.

And the other stocks in the portfolio that performed so well recently are:

Conservative Stocks
A??? September 2008 1.59%
December 2006 10.59%
October 2008 -36.33%
July 2008 -30.30%
August 2007 -36.86%
December 2007 -40.45%
July 2008 -73.35%
July 2007 32.90%
September 2008 -52.46%
November 2008 -9.23%
October 2008 -22.40%
April 2008 -9.70%
August 2008 -64.80%
February 2008 36.84%
December 2007 -6.30%
U??? November 2008 -12.28%

Moderately Aggressive Stocks
June 2008 -21.33%
July 2007 -11.29%
September 2007 -64.71%
January 2008 -47.46%
October 2008 -11.32%
July 2007 -41.78%
September 2008 -58.42%
June 2008 -73.65%

Aggressive Stocks
September 2008 -36.72%
September 2007 -32.94%
May 2008 -23.86%

This guy is incredible!!!

Still busier than ever...

But I will be back soon... with a lot of news for you.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

New spam - Old crap from Louis Navellier

November 21, 2008

OK, I admit, I’m feeling full of myself—and so are thousands of Emerging Growth subscribers!

I told them (and then I told you) back in the spring that an Obama win would mean a win for New Energy—alternative, non-fossil fuels.

Plus, I warned my subscribers last December to flee that symbol of Old Energy, GM. The stock stood at $28 then. It’s at $2 today. And right now, with GM on the operating table, the message from the Obama camp is loud and clear: Go green, Detroit, or go away.

Obama Slates Billions
for New Energy

You’d better act quickly, my friend. Among the laws ready to be railroaded through Congress is a bold and symbolic boost to alternative, non-fossil energy.

A few nimble investors will be able to catch this alternative energy tiger by the tail.

I want you to be one of them, so read every word of the following.

Fuel Systems Up 36%
SQM Up 36%!

We just hit Fuel Systems out of the park, just like I told you we would.

LOOK at Fuel Systems. It CRUSHED estimates when it reported. Sales are UP 62%. Earnings went from a loss to a gain of $18 million. Outlook was raised—and the stock shot up 45% in a few hours. I think we’ll see panic buying this week, and not just in Fuel Systems.

This is the FSYS chart. Navellier jumped in at the end of August 2008 at $51.83 and he is currently down 55%.

On November 7th FSYS crushed expectations and jumped from $26.71 to $38.80. Of course it managed to go back under previous $26.71 level down to $23.32. Not much to be full of oneself...

Let's have a look at SQM now. Navellier bought it at the end of April 2008 at $29.55. SQM went to $59 before plunging to current $19.76. Remember when he was saying "This time last year, this was a $13 stock. Recently, it hit an all-time high of $54. So that’s a 415% gain! And between $54 and $150 there’s NOTHING STOPPING IT!" here.

Louis Navellier feels full of himself for having turned this 100% unrealized gain into a 33% unrealized loss. What a genius...

Thursday, November 20, 2008

(in)famous last words...

Emerging Growth - November 19th 2008

Although today proved to be another unsettling day for the markets, the Dow is still holding above its October 10th low. The bottom line is the market is still bouncing along the bottom. As I told you in last week’s Flash Alert, the declines on November 13 were a successful “retest” of the market lows, and the story was the same today.

The S&P shed 6% to close at 806.58, which pushed through the previous low, but since the Dow is still holding firm I do not consider this an indicator of further declines. I have said before that we are bouncing along the bottom of this bear market and will likely see several “retests” before the recovery, and this is part of that trend.

Blue Chip Growth - November 19th 2008

In my Flash Alert to you last week, I told you the declines on November 13 were a successful "retest" of the market lows. The story was the same today, as the Federal Reserve sharply lowered its projection for economic activity for the rest of this year and into 2009.

The Dow slumped in late trading to close down 5%, or 427 points lower, at 7,997.28. While this is the first time the index has closed below 8,000 since 2003, it still has not pushed through the intraday low of 7,773.71–which I still consider the bottom of the market. The S&P shed 6% to close at 806.58, which pushed through the previous low, but since the Dow is still holding firm I do not consider this an indicator of further declines. I have said before that we are bouncing along the bottom of this bear market and will likely see several "retests" before the recovery, and this is part of that trend.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008


A new record for Louis Navellier and his $5.000/year Global Growth newsletter.
His stock XTLB, bought at $3.7o last August is currently trading at $0.165 for a 95% loss.

A reader's comment

I am happy other people share my point (I am not happy they lose money though) and I really hope this blog will be useful to them.

Here is what a reader wrote in a post comment. I think it is useful to repost it here:

Here is the latest disaster from Navellier.

NTRS: First posted in the Oct 2008 Newsletter

"Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is the trick play in our playbook! I know I've been telling you to steer clear of financials, but I'm going to make a very rare exception for this great stock. Why? Because Northern Trust doesn't have any exposure to the problems that are sinking other banks and brokerages! The stock is a huge bargain right now, and we'll buy in before Wall Street figures out how strong NTRS is. Northern Trust is a leading personal trust manager in the U.S., $3.6 trillion of assets under its custody, and manages corporate pension plans for institutional clients. Since some of the largest firms have been beat up so badly by the mess in financials and NTRS has come through unscathed, the money is pouring in! In the second quarter, Northern Trust's earnings were 28.6% higher than analysts' consensus estimates, and its Return on Equity is an impressive 19.9%–yet it trades at barely 17 times forecasted earnings. Buy this Conservative stock below $93."

Today's newsletter (Dec 2008):Sell NTRS (current price $42.16)

Net investement return: Over 40% decline in just under 2 months.

Thanks a lot Louis. I'm sure I could not have lost 40% in 2 months on my own!!!

Busy busy busy

Dear readers,

it is a very busy month for me and I am far behind with this blog.
I have some 20 posts waiting to be finalized and published.

Please be patient and I will release news this weekend.


Monday, November 17, 2008

Goodbye Jeff

If you go to Jeff Manera's website you will notice that it has been shut down.
After the recent disasters with losses of over 50%, here is what you can read on his former homepage:

Jeff Manera's G3 Global Options will no longer be published.

G3 Global Options was created as an exciting online investment service that delivered incredible profits by focusing on emerging market options plays.
Although Jeff has enjoyed writing G3 Global Options for you, he is now shifting his focus to concentrate on other promising endeavors. As a result, G3 Global Options will no longer be published.
While we are disappointed to cease publication of this advisory service, we want to ensure that you continue to receive the best information available to help you reach your financial goals.
That's why we believe Big Money Options is a great alternative.
Written by Nick Atkeson and Andrew Houghton, Big Money Options is a weekly, online trading service that provides easy-to-execute options trades that will double your money (or better) twice a month, on average.
The Weekly Trading Landscape will provide Nick and Andrew's thoughts on where the market is heading based on what their options indicators are telling them. Now, your weekly issue may contain trading opportunities, but it is also possible that Nick and Andrew will contact you between Weekly Trading Landscapes with Alerts that contain actionable advice, including new buying opportunities or directions on how to cash out.
I trust you will find Big Money Options to be a valuable advisory service that can help you profit in these uncertain times and that you will greatly benefit from it in the years to come.
Just go to to learn more.

Based on 2008 results, Jeff should not be the only one to close his service...

Navellier working overtime

Louis Navellier's marketing department is working overtime these days. Only in last weekend I got 2 spams from them...

Spam number 1:

Obama's First Doubler: Buy Tonight!

Buy the stock named in tonight’s issue of Emerging Growth, and you could become Wall Street’s next millionaire.
The reason is simple:
It’s about to become one of the biggest beneficiaries of Barack Obama’s renewable energy future!
All thanks to this company’s advanced fuel conversion systems, 61% revenue growth and knockout 180% earnings surprise.
If you can grab this one now—before Obama’s first renewable energy bill becomes law—you could easily double your money or more as this stock soars from $36... to $48... to $72 or higher in the weeks and months ahead.

First of all, there was no tonight issue on November 16th. But the stock is FSYS, the one that Mr. Navellier is pushing since last august, when he bought it at $51.83 (its highest price since the 2001 bubble).
All happy that on November 7th FSYS moved from $26.71 to $38.80, he seems to forget that he payed it almost $52 and he is currently down 35% on FSYS.

Spam number 2:

I got this last Saturday. Here are the first lines (enough bulls..t - no need to post all).

Fellow Investor,
Despite the subprime sell-off…
Despite the mortgage meltdown…
Despite the housing slide and the chilling conditions that have sent millions to the poorhouse…
… I’m proud to say that our Blue Chip Growth stocks have not only been an “oasis” in these trying times but have also delivered double-digit gains in a market that’s punished 9 out of 10 investors.
I’m not saying it’s been smooth sailing—no investor in their right mind can say that given this year’s market.
But what I can tell you is that we’ve been able to look beyond the day-to-day gyrations of the market... ignore the continuous media mayhem…and focus squarely on the time-proven factors that have safely and systematically built my readers wealth over the past ten years:
Buying Fundamental Superior Stocks at the Right Time.
And I’m proud to say the results have been quite impressive!
Today we’re up 184% in Monsanto, up 49% in Gilead Sciences and up 35% in McDonald’s, just to name a few of our market-beating stocks.
I mention this not to boast, but simply to show you in black-and-white that this is not only how we’ve beaten the market by $3-to-$1 for 10 years now…
…but also how we will continue to beat the market in 2009—as our recent results have proven.

So much bulls..t in just a few lines...
  1. To have a look at the "oasis", the double digit gains and the quite impressive results of Blue Chip Growth you can go here, here, here, or here. Or even here.
  2. Monsanto is up 156% (not 184%) and lost 50% since June 2008 (missed profit is much bigger that current, unrealized gain)
  3. Gilead is up 48% at $46 and is still $10 below its levels of August 2008

In addition to MON, GILD and MCD, Navellier's BlueChip portfolio is currently up 20% with B??, 15% with C?? and 1% with P??. All other stocks are down, more precisely:

Conservative stocks (average -5.46%)

  • -4.23% on A??
  • -46.64% on A??
  • -0.02% on C?
  • -36.43% on D??
  • -28.54% on E??
  • -9.77% on E???
  • -4.15% on G??
  • -23.53% on N??
  • -48.42% on N???
  • -35.92% on O??
  • -18.68% on P??
  • -18.21% on P?
  • -28.83% on R??
  • -46.40% on S??
  • -25.50% on U??
  • -15.54% on W??

Moderately aggressive stocks (average -45.12%)

  • -68.48% on A??
  • -21.23% on A???
  • -64.55% on C?
  • -55.37% on F??
  • -38.74% on H??
  • -48.56% on I??
  • -31.14% on M?
  • -64.09% on W??
  • -60.74% on W??

Aggressive stocks (average -55.65%)

  • -53.60% on F???
  • -63.28% on G??
  • -27.47% on M??
  • -78.24% on S????

The overall "oasis" is currently down a quite impressive 22.53% (and it does not count the recent disastrous sells)

Friday, November 14, 2008

Sell half of your CTRP

At the end of March 2006 Mr. Robert hsu decided to buy CTRP at $22.30 (split adjusted). He was writing:

The April newsletter also features our newest recommendation: (NASDAQ: CTRP). This company could not be more different from the bloated SOEs we've talked about today. This young Internet company is changing the way Chinese people travel, and in my mind, exemplifies what's at the heart of the China Miracle. I think the stock is an attractive buy all the way up to $90 ($45 split adjusted).

CTRP went over $70 (split adjusted) but Mr. Hsu never sold it. He waited the long decline to $25 before telling his subscribers to sell half of them for around 10% gain. International (NASDAQ: CTRP) is set to report third-quarter earnings on Monday. As we've discussed in past issues, the company may not post strong earnings this quarter as a result of limited travel in China during the Beijing Olympics. So as a precautionary measure to protect our current profits and limit our losses – if CTRP does indeed report weak earnings -- I recommend that you sell at least half of your positions in CTRP.

After another example of turning a 200% missed profit into a 10% realized one, we notice for the second time the new, humble approach of Mr. Hsu to his readers.
In fact he writes I recommend that you... instead of his usual pretentious I want you to...
But those who bought CTRP at $56 as Mr. Hsu recommended in May 2008 are now sitting on a 55% loss.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

A lot to be positive

Louis Navellier to his Emerging Growth subscribers:

We have a lot to be positive about right now. For one, our Buy List stocks are posting phenomenal earnings. Just today, for example, Diana Shipping (DSX) reported that its third-quarter profit rose 14%, beating the Street’s expectations.

He is currently down 58.57% on DSX. But he is positive...

Other two 40% losses for Robert Hsu

Robert Hsu is the guy that is down 75% on COGO, down 80% on EJ, down 60% on USO, the guy that turned a 330% profit in a 40% loss with FMCN.
Yesterday, after another disastrous day on Wall Street, he sent out an order to his $3.000/year Asia Pacific Edge subscribers: Sell QCOM and Sell SOHU.
It was April 30th when Mr. Hsu told his subscribers I want you to buy SOHU under $75.
To convince his readers Mr. Hsu showed a chart of SOHU highlighting the price move from $25 in summer 2007 to $70 at the end of April 2008. Almost a 200% missed gain. What a perfect time to get in...
Mr. Hsu was targeting $100 in the early-August, which would give us a nice 34% short-term gain.
As you can see SOHU never got to $100, but it interesting to see what Mr. Hsu was saying about SOHU at various time and compare his opinion with the chart.

  • April 30th: bought at $69.13, buy below $75
  • May 7th: so far it has given us about a 9% gain. [REMOVED]. Buy SOHU below $75.
  • May 14th: Buy under $85.
  • May 21st: Continue to buy SOHU under $85.
  • May 28th: Buy under $85.
  • June 4th: [...] (NASDAQ: SOHU) with a 14.1% gain [...] Buy under $85.
  • June 11th: Buy under $85.
  • June 18th: Buy under $85.
  • June 23, 2008: The Beijing Olympic Games are just over a month away, and advertisers throughout China are gearing up. As you know, 60% to 70% of China's ads this year are linked to the Olympics. And our very own (NASDAQ: SOHU) is investing $14.5 million on a marketing drive ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
    That's why it's a bit surprising to me that Sohu, the official Internet sponsor of the Olympic Games, sold off nearly 14% on Friday. [REMOVED] Continue to buy SOHU under $85.
  • June 25th: Buy under $85.
  • July 2nd: Buy under $85.
  • July 9th: Buy under $85.
  • July 16th: Buy under $85.
  • July 23rd: Buy under $85.
  • July 30th: Continue to buy Sohu under $85.
  • August 6th: Buy under $85.
  • August 13th: In Asia Edge, we are profiting from China's hosting of the Olympics by investing in (NASDAQ: SOHU). Buy under $85.
  • August 20th: I think SOHU and NTES are good buys now.
  • August 27th: Buy SOHU under $85.
  • September 3rd: Buy under $85.
  • September 10th: Buy under $85.
  • September 17th (SOHU is at $56 at this time): Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) shares are under pressure with the rest of the stock market, as well. But let me remind you that the firm's core business is still quite strong. So I am expecting better days ahead for SOHU. Buy SOHU under $85.
  • September 24th: Buy under $85.
  • October 1st: Buy under $85.
  • October 8th: Buy under $85.
  • October 15th: Buy under $85.
  • October 22nd: Buy under $85.
  • October 29th: Buy under $85.
  • November 5th: Buy under $85.
  • November 12th: Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) is planning to boost spending on content services in order to attract more advertisers. But the stock was still hit yesterday in response to poor earnings news from Chinese advertising giant Focus Media. I think SOHU's business model is sufficiently different from FMCN's, so the hit was not justified. Nevertheless, SOHU has been a drag on the portfolio this year, and will likely struggle in a slowing economic environment. So I want you to cut your loss and sell the stock. Sell SOHU.

Sold at $40.97 for a 40% loss. I am tempted to buy SOHU one of next days...


On August 13th Mr. Hsu bought QCOM, at its highest price ever, except the IT bubble of 2000.

Buy price was $55.39 and Mr. Hsu wrote:

Buy QCOM under $55. I'm targeting $66 in the next six to eight months, which would give us a nice 20% gain.

No way. The decline started just a few days later, but Mr. Hsu, far from the concept of stop losses, with a market going from bad to worse, kept QCOM until yesterday.

  • August 20th: Buy under $55
  • August 27th: as we discussed a couple weeks ago with the recommendation of Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), I think the technology sector is offering some profitable opportunities. Technology stocks that have significant exposure to Asia should perform particularly well in upcoming weeks and months, despite an economic slowdown in the U.S.
  • September 3rd: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) shares traded lower this week, as well. The main reason for the recent decline was a horrendous earnings report from Dell. Due to the bad report, the tech sector has been weak, and QCOM and RIMM have traded down with their peers. I still think that QCOM and RIMM are good buys as both should perform well in the upcoming weeks and months despite a global economic slowdown. Continue to buy QCOM under $55 and RIMM under $135. You remember the 47% loss with RIMM, don't you?
  • September 10th: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is working with laptop manufacturers to make a low-cost Internet-based device to be sold in India early next year. QCOM continues to be a major beneficiary of Asian wireless markets' move into 3G technology. And I recommend that you continue to buy QCOM under $55.
  • September 17th: I want you to buy QCOM under $55.
  • September 24th: Buy under $55
  • October 1st: Buy under $55
  • October 8th: Buy under $55
  • October 15th: finally, sitting on a 34% loss, the buy price was lowered: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) has announced that the U.S. import ban against its cell phone chips has been thrown out. The ban was put in place when the ITC stated that Qualcomm's products infringe on a Broadcom patent. But the Appeals Court threw out the ban, saying that the ITC did not have the authority to issue it. The ITC will now revisit the case. QCOM says that it has already developed other software that does not infringe on Broadcom's patent. This is bullish for QCOM, a company that does not rely on bank financing. I want you to buy QCOM under $45.
  • October 22nd: Buy Below $45
  • October 29th: Buy Below $45
  • November 5th: Buy Below $45
  • November 12th: Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) announced poor earnings last week, and as a results, share have sold off. During the third quarter, net income fell 29% to $878 million from $1.13 billion a year earlier. And the company said sales this quarter may fall as much as 6%, which would be the first decline since 2001. In light of the company's poor quarterly results, I recommend selling QCOM. Sell Qualcomm.

Close price was $32.57 for a 41.2% loss.