Saturday, August 30, 2008

The Little Book That Makes You Rich

The Little Book That Makes You Rich: A Proven Market Beating Formula for Growth Investing is the book Mr. Louis Navellier wrote in 2007.

Here is the review a reader posted on Amazon:

This book won't make you rich. Neither Navellier's newsletters.
Investing in growth stocks (also called hot stocks) is risky. If there are excellent news then hot stocks rise. If there are bad news then hot stocks collapse. The fact is that when there are good (but not excellent) news then hot stocks may collapse (see Apple, from 200$ to 130$).
You can buy this book, but do not use it to invest real money. For real stuff then have a look at the little book of Value investing.
And, my opinion, do not subscribe to Navellier's newsletters. The best one - Global Growth - is down 25% in 4 months...
Do you want more examples: last October/November Mr. Navellier said "Strong Buy" on DRYS at 120$ (now 57$ -50%), GOOG at over 700$ (now 430$ -40%), BIDU at over 400$ (now 207$ -50%), EXM at 80$ (now 27$ -70%), YZC at 110$ (now 60$ -45%)... and the list is veeeery long.

It seems like this reader shares my opinion. Well, a friend me passed me the booklet. There are some interesting theories, but I strongly doubt they work...

There is also a companion website for the booklet: www.getrichwithgrowth.com where you could register and access Mr. Navellier's Portfolio Grader Pro for free. The problem is that PGPro does not work...


Friday, August 29, 2008

Robert Hsu's China Fireworks

Robert Hsu wrote the book China Fireworks: How to Make Dramatic Wealth from the Fastest-Growing Economy in the World.

And I bought it. My fault. I would like to ask my money back but I can't. I will pack it and give it as a present to somebody I don't like...

The most interesting part of the book is the back cover where you can read:


Praise for
CHINA FIREWORKS
How to Make Dramatic Wealth from the
Fastest-Growing Economy in the World

"Robert Hsu is our most trusted source of investment guidance in the
China market. China Fireworks is a must-read for any investor or business
person interested in the world's most dynamic emerging market."
-Ken and Daria Dolan, America's First Family of Personal
Finance and founders of www.dolans.com


"This book is a wonderful revelation on how China transformed itself
from a third-world country to the economic superpower it is today. Robert
shares his unique and honest insights into what is really happening in China
with a candor and sincerity I found very refreshing. His insights into the
best growth areas make this a must-read book for all serious international
investors and those eager to learn more about this growing superpower."
-Louis Navellier, CIO, Navellier & Associates, and author of
The Little Book That Makes You Rich


"There is no question that the China growth story is real, but it can also be
a bit treacherous for investors. Robert Hsu knows the history, the people,
the 'lay of the land,' and the companies to help you profitably navigate this
mega-opportunity."
-Tobin Smith, ChangeWave Investing



But who are Ken and Daria Dolan, Louis Navellier and Tobin Smith?

They are all InvestorPlace "Experts". You can find their marketing oriented profiles on the InvestorPlace website for all of them: Ken and Daria Dolan, Louis Navellier and Tobin Smith.

Remember: you cannot ask for your money back for this book, but you can for Mr. Hsu's newsletters...


Monday, August 25, 2008

You'd better shun Blue Chip Growth, Navellier says...

I just got a spam from Louis Navellier. He was kidding Cox, Bernanke and Paulson calling them the Three Stoges.

On a frame Mr. navellier also reported a list of stocks to avoid, or using his own words:

Do You Own ONE of These Stocks?
This is a sampling of the stocks we put to the test and report on in 200 To Shun.

Interesting. So let's see the list:

Microsoft, Apple, Visa, Cisco, Crocs, Google, Intel, General Electric, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, America Movil, Colgate-Palmolive, Deere, Express Scripts, First Solar, Mosaic, MEMC Electronic, Toyota, Blockbuster, McDonald’s, Research In Motion, Schlumberger, Lockheed Martin, CSX Corp, Merrill Lynch, Pfizer, Merck, MasterCard, Raytheon, Activision, Hess, Owens-Illinois, Pepsi Co, Transocean, Vimpel


Then I decided to have a look at his latest buy lists and...
  1. Apple is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $202
  2. Crocs (well, you know the story...)
  3. Colgate-Palmolive is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $84
  4. Deere is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $71
  5. Express Scripts is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $80
  6. First Solar is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $320
  7. Mosaic is in Blue Chip Growth (buy below $112) AND Quantum Growth portfolio (buy below $109.36)
  8. McDonald’s is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $68
  9. Research In Motion is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $146
  10. Schlumberger is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $98
  11. CSX Corp is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $65
  12. MasterCard is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $272
  13. Raytheon is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $66
  14. Activision is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $38
  15. Hess is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $110
  16. Owens-Illinois is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $49
  17. Transocean is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $135
  18. Vimpel is in Blue Chip Growth portfolio - buy below $28

You'd better shun Blue Chip Growth...


Sunday, August 24, 2008

A quick note on Louis Navellier and SOLF

A reader (Mr. SIngh The Bus Driver) left a comment on a previous post: Louis Navellier and AIXG.

"SOLF u didn't post his 50% gain almost u have to give him credit when he deserves"

First of all I thank my reader, I appreciate comments, and I hope he will continue to read my blog.

Then, it is true. SOLF was at $15 when Mr. Navellier sent out his marketing newsletter. He was writing: It is a $15 stock and it possesses a trigger that is about to shoot it to $30...and beyond...possibly back to $40, where it was just 7 months ago...

I am tracking SOLF and I haven't written about it yet for 2 reasons:
  • Earnings will be reported on August 27th. We will see what happens after that date. But more important

  • We need to see when Mr. Navellier will close his position with SOLF. Take as an example PCU where he made a 70% gain in two years. It seems an excellent return. Nevertheless this is an unacceptable performance for a paying service, since gain was at 200% months before Mr. Navellier decided to close his position. He was saying Buy at $44 a few months before selling at $23. See the whole post for details.
I promise I will write again about SOLF, either if it "shoots to $30 and beyond" or if it retreats.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Quantum Growth Top 5 stocks for June 30th 2008

From June 30th to August 15th 2008 the S&P500 index scores a +1.55%.

On June 30th Louis Navellier wrote to his $5.000/year [REMOVED] subscribers his list of the best 5 stocks.

This Week's Top 5 
  1. NRF [REMOVED]
  2. BAP [REMOVED]
  3. WDC [REMOVED]
  4. CMP [REMOVED]
  5. FSYS [REMOVED]


Well, let's compare these Top 5 stocks with the S&P500 in the same period: June 30th to August 15th.

FSYS moved from $38.5 to $53.58 gaining an amazing 39.17%
NRF moved from $8.32 to $7.86 losing -5.53%
BAP moved from $82.12 to $71.25 losing -13.24%
WDC moved from $34.53 to $29.45 losing -14.71%
CMP moved from $80.56 to $63.81 losing -20.79%

On average the Top 5 stocks scored the double of the S&P500, but with a minus sign in front:
-3% vs +1.55%.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Introducing John Dessauer

Removed copyright content and republished
Original post date was August 12th 2008

John Dessauer is another of the [REMOVED] experts and publisher of [REMOVED].


He sends his subscribers a monthly newsletter and a weelky hotline.


Today I want to share with you a couple of John's thoughts from last December about the Credit Crisis and the Top 10 stocks for 2008.



Mr. Dessauer said The Housing Market Will Recover for many reasons:

He said the subprime mortgage market is a very small slice of global capital, he said homebuyers are not all gullible fools, he said banks and other lenders are not greedy idiots, he said there is strong underlying demand for housing, he said there has been a major change in seller psychology, he said pessimists are wrong about adjustablerate mortgages, he said perceptions can change rapidly, he said the best correlation is between jobs and housing, he said outside help was on the way and he said the healing process also was well under way.





My Top 10 Stocks for 2008


Dec 31st 2007Aug 12th 2008P/L%
CAH57.7554.1-6%
CAKE23.7116.67-30%
C29.4419.82-33%
DIS32.2832.82%
HAL37.9143.4815%
IMB5.950.06-99%
MHP43.8143.790%
PFE22.7319.88-13%
RAD2.791.33-52%
TSM9.9610.677%



Average is -21%. I think John will be back with us on this blog soon...

Monday, August 11, 2008

Investor's Business Daily 100

Investor's Business Daily is a financial newspaper. You can subscribe via their website and download the PDF version of it.
On the website you can also access THE IBD® 100: Weekly list of the top stocks in the market.
I subscribed for a while, but found the newspaper itself full of "yesterday news" and THE IBD 100 to be a compilation of Navellier's and Hsu's buy lists, thus a too much growth oriented (and risky) buy list.
Nevertheless I saved some of the IBD 100's to my hard disk and today we are going to check the performance of these 100 top stocks in the market over the last three months.


RankCompanySymbolPrice May 9thPrice Aug 8thChange
1CONTINENTAL RES INCCLR52.0944.83-14%
2GRAHAM CORPGHM64.9598.7552%
3POTASH CORP SASKATCHEWANPOT197.57171.51-13%
4BUCYRUS INTERNATIONALBUCY70.2560.26-14%
5MASTERCARD INC CL AMA288.8232.13-20%
6TITAN MACHINERY INCTITN20.9320.920%
7BAIDU.COM INC ADSBIDU368.4319.26-13%
8RESEARCH IN MOTION LTDRIMM140.84133.75-5%
9ARENA RESOURCES INCARD51.5538.37-26%
10DRYSHIPS INCDRYS98.267.89-31%
11DENBURY RESOURCES INCDNR34.0522.83-33%
12C F INDUSTRIES HOLDINGSCF137.04134.65-2%
13SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COSWN44.8232.56-27%
14PRICELINE.COM INCPCLN139.6695.58-32%
15RENESOLA LTD ADSSOL21.6713.9-36%
16SOCIEDAD QUIMICA Y MINRASQM28.2534.3121%
17T THREE ENERGY SERVICESTTES64.7456.57-13%
18F M C TECHNOLOGIES INCFTI78.2252.97-32%
19HESS CORPHES118.0995.87-19%
20QUICKSILVER RESOURCESKWK41.0725.2-39%
21MOSAIC COMPANYMOS125.1104.42-17%
22COMPANHIA SIDERURGIC ADSSID48.3734.1-30%
23G M X RESOURCES INCGMXR42.5357.8236%
24CONCUR TECHNOLOGIES INCCNQR38.3547.4924%
25CTRIP.COM INTL LTD ADRCTRP62.3445.25-27%
26TERRA NITROGEN CO LPTNH146.3598.03-33%
27ATWOOD OCEANICS INCATW52.5439.54-25%
28NATIONAL OILWELL VARCONOV76.2570.52-8%
29TRANSOCEAN INCRIG149.03127.16-15%
30SWIFT ENERGY COSFY57.843.72-24%
31NATURAL GAS SERVICES GRPNGS26.5323.57-11%
32RANGE RESOURCES CORPRRC70.8441.8-41%
33APPLE INCAAPL189.96169.55-11%
34MONSANTO COMON120.39107.66-11%
35MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMSMPWR25.0425.833%
36NOBLE ENERGY INCNBL97.6366.59-32%
37SYNIVERSE HOLDINGS INCSVR21.5517.56-19%
38JINPAN INTERNATIONAL LTDJST42.5134.54-19%
39AGRIUM INCAGU86.1478.53-9%
40PETROQUEST ENERGY INCPQ22.417.99-20%
41FLOWSERVE CORPFLS126.23119.88-5%
42OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUMOXY90.1476.09-16%
43GENCOR INDUSTRIES INCGENC17.610.1-43%
44APACHE CORPAPA139.3105.21-24%
45BADGER METER INCBMI51.3260.4718%
46SUN HYDRAULICS INCSNHY39.534.33-13%
47METALICO INCMEA15.4514.44-7%
48WHITING PETROLEUM CORPWLL81.0181.721%
49INTUITIVE SURGICAL INCISRG290.39308.266%
50A B B LTDABB32.0625.55-20%
51GULFMARK OFFSHORE INCGLF60.7946.79-23%
52PRIDE INTERNATIONAL INCPDE44.639.02-13%
53ANSYS INCANSS45.4648.467%
54GAFISA S A ADSGFA42.3833.14-22%
55NOBLE CORPNE63.4248.93-23%
56ENERSYSENS29.0226.08-10%
57BERRY PETROLEUM CO CL ABRY55.1438.84-30%
58INTEGRAL SYSTEMS INCISYS37.7649.531%
59C S X CORPCSX64.9865.611%
60ST MARY LAND & EXLORATNSM49.739.38-21%
61WEATHERFORD INTL LTDWFT43.54537.25-14%
62CENTRAL EUROPEAN DIST CPCEDC66.1463.27-4%
63VALMONT INDUSTRIES INCVMI111.73104.65-6%
64E O G RESOURCES INCEOG138.5593.86-32%
65SOHU.COM INCSOHU81.872.5-11%
66ARCH COAL INCACI65.1548.72-25%
67CIMAREX ENERGY COXEC68.6649.96-27%
68GERDAU S A ADRGGB45.3319.14-58%
69MCDERMOTT INTLMDR57.8841.33-29%
70PERICOM SEMICONDUCTORPSEM17.4214.6-16%
71VIMPEL COMMUNICATIONSVIP32.6424.06-26%
72GRAFTECH INTERNATIONALGTI23.8619.12-20%
73NEW ORIENTL EDU&TECH ADSEDU72.8174.262%
74KOPPERS HOLDINGS INCKOP48.1346.37-4%
75KANSAS CITY SOUTHERNKSU47.3352.812%
76MILLICOM INTL CELLULARMICC120.1478.5-35%
77MURPHY OIL CORPMUR86.5975.07-13%
78NEWMARKET CORPORATIONNEU66.2967.161%
79CELANESE CORPCE47.9237.81-21%
80CHINA MOBILE LTD ADRCHL84.8564.55-24%
81ENCANA CORPECA90.6366.47-27%
82GARDNER DENVER INCGDI50.4146.22-8%
83KIRBY CORPKEX58.4745.94-21%
84URBAN OUTFITTERS INCURBN33.1235.597%
85ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORPAPC77.7753.78-31%
86SADIA SA ADRSDA22.3922.27-1%
87CAMERON INTL CORPCAM53.1645.66-14%
88COMPASS MINERALS INTLCMP70.0563.05-10%
89ROBBINS & MYERS INCRBN42.5445.397%
90CHART INDUSTRIES INCGTLS39.545.515%
91W & T OFFSHORE INCWTI49.7734.7-30%
92AXSYS TECHNOLOGIES INCAXYS57.2872.6127%
93MECHEL OAO ADSMTL52.3123.45-55%
94CYBERSOURCE CORPORATIONCYBS17.218.528%
95L K Q CORPLKQX21.7520.7-5%
96MINDRAY MEDICAL INTL ADSMR39.0637.91-3%
97DAWSON GEOPHYSICAL CODWSN78.761.42-22%
98N V E CORPNVEC36.6631.29-15%
99NATUS MEDICAL INCBABY21.5224.7315%
100NETLOGIC MICROSYSTEMSNETL34.4834.18-1%


An average 3 month loss of 13% compared to a S&P500 loss of around 6%-7% in the same period makes me think these were not the Top Stocks in the market.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

The worst stock picker ever

Do you know this guy?

If you dare to go to his website (http://www.doubleplayprofits.com/ and do not laught please) you will read:

James L. Rapholz, BA, MA Economics, is America’s respected “Professor of Personal Investing” and is editor and publisher of the top-rated precious metals and energy newsletter James L. Rapholz’s Economic Advice, and has been writing stock advisory newsletters for more than 20 years.

I received a non solicited email from this guy in August 2007. He was talking about a fantastic company called PSP Holdings that was launching a micro payment system for Africa.

This guy was screaming "buy PSPJ now at 50 cents before it goes to 1$, 2$ or even more than 5$". Then he filled his email message with a report (I am sure it was completely unreal) showing that even in case of no success, this stock would have rose to 1$.

I suspect he was payed by PSPP Holdings itself to write such bullshit so to allow PSPP shareholders to get rid of their crap with some money in their pocket.

If you ask yourself how is PSPJ going today... you have to wait a few more lines, because that is not the only smart advice I got from him.

On November 27th 2007 I got another message from this guy. He was saying:

Get in early and every $1 you invest could be worth $12 this time next year. A modest $5,000 grows to $60,000 ­ That’s a 1,200% Profit in 12 months or less. Don’t miss out on this astounding offering.
Empire Film Group (EFGU) is a ground breaking opportunity in a $28.5 billion movie industry in the U.S.


At that time EFGU was around $2.87 and it seems to me it is still much lower than the $30 this guy promised.

Another message came to my mailbox on December 17th 2007 saying:

4 Simple Reasons Why You Could Triple and Quadruple Your Money in the Next 12-18 Months Investing Now in China's #1 Resource:
* China is the fastest growing economy in the world. When Wall Street falls in love with one of its stocks, there have been gains of 350% in hours. . .2,735% in a year. . .even 3,885% in just 21 months!
* China's continued growth is being fueled by more than 450 of the top multinational corporations.
* Here's the problem: Both Chinese and foreign-invested companies cannot find enough people with the right skill sets to keep China growing!
* Even with the largest workforce in the world (total population of 1.3 billion) and a highly educated younger population (China graduated 4.13 million college students In 2006), fewer than one in ten graduates is employable by a multinational corporation.

Buy China Career Builder (OTC:CCBX) now at below $2 and look for a triple by year end! Skilled, educated workers are the key to China's continued growth!

CCBX was $0.74 at that time. Do you think it tripled to 2$ or it lost 80% if it's value?

Other great advices from this idiot expert include SCEY and TAMO. Now let's the results:


Buy PriceCurrent Price (Aug. 4th 2008)
Gain/Loss
CCBX0.740.13-82%
EFGU2.870.70-75%
PSPJ0.570.005-99%
SCEY2.840.31-89%
TAMO
2.602.35-9%

As you see, TAMO is the Best Performer with -9%.
Congratulations Mr. Rapholz, I will give you all my money.