Friday, January 30, 2009

Louis Navellier and POT

Quite a long retm trade for Mr. Navellier with POT. Over one year and a half to get extraordinary results.
Let's start from the beginning. In his June 2007 issue of Blue Chip Growth Mr. Navellier wrote:

Potash Corporation (POT) is the world’s leading producer of potash, commonly used as
fertilizer. The company also produces nitrogen (used in fertilizer and a variety of industrial and
consumer products) and phosphate (for feed products, food products, and detergents). The
company has about 20 plants in North America, Brazil, Chile and Trinidad with an annual production capacity of 12.5 million tons of potash, which represents more than 20% of the world’s capacity. Now that food prices are rising, farmers are trying to boost their output with fertilizer.
The company recently announced that its first-quarter earnings surged 55.5% to $1.85 per share compared with $1.19 per share in last year’s first quarter. Sales rose 34% in the quarter to
$1.15 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $1.71 per share on sales of $913.6 million, so the company posted an 8.2% earnings surprise and a whopping 25.9% sales surprise! POT also raised its earnings forecast, announced a 3-for-1 split on May 30 and doubled its dividend! These are all very positive developments, in my book. Buy POT for your Moderate portfolio below $221. ($73.66 split adjusted)
Buy price was $205.95 ($68.65 split adjusted)
One month later POT gained around 13% and Mr. Navellier was writing:

Top 5 stocks: #5. Potash Corporation (POT) had a great first month on our Buy List, rising 13%. The world’s largest producer of potash, which is used as a fertilizer, and a miner of uranium said it’s looking to buy another fertilizer company. Buy below $83.
August 2007

Top 5 stocks: #3. Potash Corporation (POT): Potash is seeing business skyrocket in the U.S. to meet our growing demand for ethanol. During the past four quarters, the company posted 34% sales growth and 21.6% earnings growth. Analysts have raised their earnings estimates 15.3% higher on POT, so stock up on this stock before its July 26 earnings report! Buy Potash below $89.
September 2007

Top 5 stocks: #3. Potash Corporation (POT) is seeing business skyrocket in the U.S. to meet the growing demand for ethanol. During the past four quarters, the company has posted 34% sales growth and 21.6% earnings growth. Its second-quarter earnings jumped 63%. The company declared this quarter as their best ever, with $285.7 million, or 88 cents per share in profits. POT is an excellent buy below $81.
October 2007

Top 5 stocks: #4. Potash Corporation (POT) is seeing business skyrocket in the U.S. to meet the growing demand for ethanol. The stock is up an incredible 18% since last month. I can’t say I’m surprised. POT is an excellent buy below $95.
November 2007
Buy Below $114
December 2007

Top 5 stocks: #3. Potash Corp (POT) had been out of range most of the month but cooled off when its earnings came out. Sales were up 32%; earnings were up 23%, but that was actually 8.5% below analysts’ expectations. Like MOS, I believe POT will benefit from higher potash prices and continued global demand. The stock is a great buy under $117.
January 2008
Buy Below $134
February 2008
Buy Below $134
March 2008

Top 5 stocks: #4. Potash Corp. (POT) floored analysts with its $1.16 per share earnings in the fourth quarter. Analysts had only expected the company to earn $0.97, so POT posted a stunning 19.6% earnings surprise. The company predicts even more profits in the year ahead. POT, by the way, is the world’s largest fertilizer company. We’re up 115% in the company. Buy it below $160.
April 2008

Top 5 stocks: #5. Potash Corporation (POT) is yet another fastgrowing agricultural stock, handing us over 133% profi ts since June 2007. recently listed Potash as one of its top 10 “Rocket Stocks” that are set to climb in the coming days. Don’t miss out. Buy POT below $173.
May 2008

Top 5 stocks: #4. Potash Corporation (POT) is also benefiting as an agriculture stock. On Friday, April 18, 2008 the company posted a new 52-week high of $204.67. This climb should come as no surprise to us as we’ve managed to bring in over a 198% gain in Potash. Buy POT below $221.
June 2008
Buy Below $225
July 2008

Potash (POT), the fertilizer giant, is another favorite for the Top 5 list that returns. I’m confident that there’s still a lot of money to still be made in this stock, so keep buying it below $245.
August 2008

Agricultural companies like Potash (POT), which has given us almost 200% in profit in just over a year, will continue to be winners for us.

Yet another fertilizer pick, Potash (POT), is looking great. Analysts have been inching expectations up in anticipation of Potash’s July 24 quarterly report, and I expect a big bump in this stock’s value after the numbers are released.
Buy Below $236
September 2008
Buy Below $182
October 2008

Top 5 stocks: #4. Another sleeping giant is our other top fertilizer company, Potash (POT). This Buy List stock has pulled back from its June highs but should also rebound strongly thanks to its strong fundamental ratings. Several factors, including raw material shortages and biofuel demand, are helping fertilizer producers like Mosaic and Potash push through this brief patch of turbulence. The price of potash, the key fertilizer for which POT takes its name, is expected to reach $767 a ton this month—up an astonishing $600 a ton since early 2007! Potash is a great buy since its margins will continue to be strong through the end of 2008.
Buy Below $181

November 2008

Buy Below $93 (POT lost 50% in one month and Louis says nothing...)

December 2008

[...] CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT) all posting better-than-expected earnings and over 100% sales growth. If you doubted whether our ag picks were worth holding on to, I hope this helped prove that these companies still have a lot of strength.
Buy Below $81

January 2009

Of course, some of our current Blue Chip ag stocks like Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) are C-rated in PortfolioGrader, but I do not think it is wise to move out of these stocks yet because they are grossly undervalued and are sure to move upward as we approach the release of quarterly reports.
Depending on each individual stock’s performance and fundamentals this earnings season, we will likely sell some of our ag picks into strength after quarterly reports come out. Potash in particular has a history of posting impressive earnings surprises—to the tune of a 420% earnings jump last quarter over the previous year—so we are better off riding that wave once quarterly reports are released. So I am making an exception to my rule of selling stocks rated C or less in PortfolioGrader; don’t sell any of these stocks yet! I will be sure to tell you when the time is right.
Hold POT

February 2009

Since MON and MOS have already released quarterly reports, sell them right away. Looking ahead, please make sure you mark your calendar right now for Friday, January 23, as the day I want you to sell Potash. That’s because the company reports earnings a day before, and you will get the best price for your shares. To remind you of this trade, I will send you a Sell Alert via e-mail the day POT reports earnings.
POT open Price on January 23rd was $69.56. That makes a 1.3% gain for Mr. Navellier (excluding transaction cost...).
But last July somebody may have bought it at $241 (below the $245 limit) for an outstanding 71% loss!!!

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