In his latest issue of [REMOVED] or September 3rd 2008 Mr. Hsu suggested his $3.000/year paying readers to sell three stocks: BUCY, SYT and MOS.[REMOVED] I'm recommending that you sell BucyrusBUCY), Syngenta (NYSA: SYT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS). (NASDAQ:
[REMOVED]
Sell BUCY at about breakeven and SYT for a small loss.
Sell MOS for a 159% gain.
Let's see now the story of BUCY, SYT and MOS.
BUCY
Mr. Hsu added Bucy to his [REMOVED] portfolio on March 5th 2008 at $107.53 ($53.77 split adjusted). He was writing his usual forecast:
[REMOVED]
I want you to buy BUCY under $120 [$60 split adjusted]. I'm targeting $150 [$75 split adjusted] in the next six to eight months, which would give us a nice short-term gain of about 25%.
In June 2008 BUCY actually went over $75 and even over $78. Where was Mr. Hsu at that time? Why didn't he tell his paying subscribers to sell and take profit? BUCY reached his target.
No. What Mr. Hsu did in June was just to rise his buy below price, as usual.
So I expect people to have bought BUCY at $75 ot $78, just to wait until today and get told to sell it at $53.40.
What Mr. Hsu call "about breakeven" is, for some of his customers a loss of 30%.
SYT
SYT was added to the portfolio on March 12th 2008 at $56.99, its highest price its history.
I want you to buy SYT under $60. I expect it to reach $80 or higher in the next six to eight months, which will give us a 30%+ gain from today's price.
Needless to say that not only SYT never got to $80, but it did not even go over $67. Mr. Hsu could have set a stop or could have sold in June, when the commoditied bubble brought the price at $66.
Absolutely not. What Mr. Hsu did in June was to rise the buy below price to $65. So, his 9.5% loss is little thing compared to the loss of his customers who bought SYT at $65 in June and sold it at $51.46: -20%.
And finally MOS
A very good 160% gain with MOS for Mr. Hsu. He bought MOS on June 6th 2007 at $35.85. Did his $3.000/year paying custmer do the same?
Or maybe they bought MOS after April 2008, following Mr. Hsu's "I want you to buy MOS under" $120 (April 2nd and 9th 2008), $140 (April 16th, 23rd and 30th, all May and June 4th 2008), $150 (June 11th, 18th and 25th 2008)?
How happy can be a customer that subscribed in June and bought MOS at $150 just to sell it yesterday at $93.09 for a 38% loss?
Remember: on [REMOVED] his conference MOS was (at $140) one of the Top5 stocks according to Mr. Hsu.
In over 2 months (mid June to beginning of September) Mr. Hsu did not suspect that moving from $160 to $93 was alarming enough to sell or set a stop loss order. The missed profit ($67) is bigger than the realized profit ($57).
Current portfolio performance
Finally, after selling BUCY, SYT and MOS, how is Mr. Hsu's portfolio doing? Here it is:
- STOCK 1: -3.60%
- STOCK 2: -31.80%
- STOCK 3: -1.60%
- STOCK 4: -23.30%
- STOCK 5: -5.00%
- STOCK 6: 13.10%
- STOCK 7: -15.90%
- STOCK 8: -8.70%
- STOCK 9: -9.20%
- STOCK 10: 5.90%
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment