Friday, October 24, 2008

Robert Hsu and EWS

The genius strikes back!

I want you to sell EWS

This is what Mr. Robert Hsu wrote yesterday to his China Profit Strategy (Profit from the China Miracle) paying subscribers.

Let's see the story. On his March 2007 issue Mr. Hsu was writing:

EWS is up about 50% since mid-June, and I believe Singapore's China-driven growth will drive it higher in the coming months and years. Buy EWS under $13. I look for this ETF to be a solid gainer for us as it moves up towards $20 over the next 12 months. I'm targeting a nice 25% gain -- and that doesn't include the strong 2.6% yield we earn while we hold it.

Price was $11.36 for Mr. Hsu. We have all the ingredients here:
  1. 50% growth in the last months (making me think about a trend that is close to finish)
  2. Highest price in the last 10 years (making me think it is quite a risky buy)
  3. Mr. Hsu's forecast of a move to $20 (making me think it will actually sink like a stone)
Here is the chart:

Needless to say that EWS never went to $20, and not even close to $20.
It went close to $16 in October 2008 when Mr. Hsu was writing: Buy EWH under $20.
Some of his subscribers could have bought EWS at over $15 at that time.

Some weeks ago Mr. Hsu realized that what he called a sharp correction is actually one of the worst bear markets in history and he told his subscribers to hold EWS.

Until yesterday, when he wrote:

I think there will probably be prolonged weakness in Singapore's economy that is unlikely to recover anytime soon. Therefore, I think it is prudent to get out of our investment in Singapore -- iShares MSCI Singapore Index ETF (EWS). We originally bought EWS as a way to profit from the country's China-driven growth, but I think its slowing export business is now negating any of that expansion. So I want you to sell EWS.

There will probably be a prolonged weakness? What is happening since 12 months ago? The prolonged weakness is going on since October 2007 and you kept this crap in your portfolio for all this time.

Mr. Hsu sold at $6.81 yesterday for a 40% loss. It would be very interesting to know how Mr. Hsu calculates profits and losses. Let's have a look at his site:

Loss should be calculated as:

(Sell Price / Buy Price) - 1

in this case:

6.81 / 11.36 - 1

that makes

0.5995 - 1 = 0.4005

that is 40.05%.

So why does Mr. Hsu reports -38.6%?

PS. If anyone bought at $15.50 when Mr. Hsu was saying "buy under $20" the loss is 56%.

1 comment:

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